Trafalgar Group
Polls scored
120
83 races, 2016–2024
Lean
2.2 pts toward Republicans
95% range -3.1 to -1.3
Average miss
3.7 pts
on the D–R margin
Winner called
63%
Every scored poll
| Fieldwork ended | Race | Poll | Result | Miss | Workings |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-11-04 | 2024 President · Ohio | R+6.9 | R+11.2 | +4.3 | autopsy |
| 2024-11-04 | 2024 Senate · Ohio | R+0.8 | R+3.6 | +2.8 | autopsy |
| 2024-11-03 | 2024 President · Pennsylvania | R+1.7 | R+1.7 | +0.0 | autopsy |
| 2024-11-03 | 2024 President · Wisconsin | D+1.2 | R+0.9 | +2.1 | autopsy |
| 2024-11-03 | 2024 President · Michigan | R+0.4 | R+1.4 | +1.0 | autopsy |
| 2024-11-03 | 2024 President · Arizona | R+2.1 | R+5.5 | +3.4 | autopsy |
| 2024-11-03 | 2024 Senate · Pennsylvania | R+1.5 | R+0.2 | -1.3 | autopsy |
| 2024-11-03 | 2024 Senate · Wisconsin | R+0.5 | D+0.8 | -1.3 | autopsy |
| 2024-11-03 | 2024 Senate · Michigan | R+0.1 | D+0.3 | -0.4 | autopsy |
| 2024-11-03 | 2024 Senate · Arizona | D+0.5 | D+2.4 | -1.9 | autopsy |
| 2024-10-28 | 2024 President · North Carolina | R+3.2 | R+3.2 | +0.0 | autopsy |
| 2024-10-28 | 2024 President · Nevada | D+0.2 | R+3.1 | +3.3 | autopsy |
| 2024-10-28 | 2024 President · Ohio | R+6.1 | R+11.2 | +5.1 | autopsy |
| 2024-10-28 | 2024 Senate · Nevada | D+1.9 | D+1.6 | +0.3 | autopsy |
| 2024-10-28 | 2024 Senate · Ohio | D+0.8 | R+3.6 | +4.4 | autopsy |
| 2024-10-26 | 2024 President · Georgia | R+2.4 | R+2.2 | -0.2 | autopsy |
| 2024-10-26 | 2024 President · Arizona | R+2.1 | R+5.5 | +3.4 | autopsy |
| 2024-10-26 | 2024 Senate · Arizona | D+3.8 | D+2.4 | +1.4 | autopsy |
| 2024-10-20 | 2024 President · Wisconsin | R+0.2 | R+0.9 | +0.7 | autopsy |
| 2024-10-20 | 2024 President · Michigan | R+1.8 | R+1.4 | -0.4 | autopsy |
| 2024-10-20 | 2024 Senate · Wisconsin | R+0.4 | D+0.8 | -1.2 | autopsy |
| 2024-10-20 | 2024 Senate · Michigan | D+1.4 | D+0.3 | +1.1 | autopsy |
| 2024-10-19 | 2024 President · Pennsylvania | R+3.0 | R+1.7 | -1.3 | autopsy |
| 2024-10-19 | 2024 Senate · Pennsylvania | R+0.4 | R+0.2 | -0.2 | autopsy |
| 2022-12-04 | 2022 Senate · GA | D+3.7 | D+2.8 | +0.9 | autopsy |
| 2022-11-06 | 2022 Senate · AZ | R+1.5 | D+4.9 | -6.4 | autopsy |
| 2022-11-06 | 2022 Senate · NV | R+4.9 | D+0.8 | -5.7 | autopsy |
| 2022-11-06 | 2022 Governor · AZ | R+3.6 | D+0.7 | -4.3 | autopsy |
| 2022-11-06 | 2022 Governor · MI | R+0.3 | D+10.5 | -10.8 | autopsy |
| 2022-11-06 | 2022 Governor · NV | R+2.5 | R+1.5 | -1.0 | autopsy |
| 2022-11-05 | 2022 Senate · GA | R+3.2 | D+1.0 | -4.2 | autopsy |
| 2022-11-05 | 2022 Senate · NC | R+6.4 | R+3.2 | -3.2 | autopsy |
| 2022-11-05 | 2022 Governor · GA | R+8.9 | R+7.5 | -1.4 | autopsy |
| 2022-11-04 | 2022 Senate · OH | R+10.4 | R+6.1 | -4.3 | autopsy |
| 2022-11-04 | 2022 Governor · OH | R+24.5 | R+25.0 | +0.5 | autopsy |
| 2022-11-03 | 2022 Senate · WI | R+2.7 | R+1.0 | -1.7 | autopsy |
| 2022-11-03 | 2022 Governor · WI | R+1.6 | D+3.4 | -5.0 | autopsy |
| 2022-11-02 | 2022 Senate · PA | R+2.2 | D+4.9 | -7.1 | autopsy |
| 2022-11-02 | 2022 Governor · PA | D+4.3 | D+14.8 | -10.5 | autopsy |
| 2022-10-31 | 2022 Senate · CO | D+1.5 | D+14.6 | -13.1 | autopsy |
| 2022-10-31 | 2022 Senate · MO | R+11.0 | R+13.3 | +2.3 | autopsy |
| 2022-10-31 | 2022 Senate · NH | R+1.3 | D+9.1 | -10.4 | autopsy |
| 2022-10-31 | 2022 Governor · CO | D+7.1 | D+19.4 | -12.3 | autopsy |
| 2022-10-29 | 2022 Senate · NY | D+10.6 | D+14.0 | -3.4 | autopsy |
| 2022-10-29 | 2022 Governor · NY | R+0.8 | D+7.3 | -8.1 | autopsy |
| 2022-10-27 | 2022 Senate · WA | D+1.2 | D+14.5 | -13.3 | autopsy |
| 2022-10-26 | 2022 Governor · CO | D+7.7 | D+19.4 | -11.7 | autopsy |
| 2022-10-24 | 2022 Senate · NV | R+4.2 | D+0.8 | -5.0 | autopsy |
| 2022-10-24 | 2022 Governor · NV | R+6.8 | R+1.5 | -5.3 | autopsy |
| 2022-10-22 | 2022 Senate · GA | R+2.4 | D+1.0 | -3.4 | autopsy |
| 2022-10-22 | 2022 Governor · GA | R+6.9 | R+7.5 | +0.6 | autopsy |
| 2022-10-20 | 2022 Governor · MI | D+0.5 | D+10.5 | -10.0 | autopsy |
| 2022-10-20 | 2022 Governor · NM | R+1.1 | D+6.4 | -7.5 | autopsy |
| 2022-10-20 | 2022 Governor · OR | R+1.3 | D+3.4 | -4.7 | autopsy |
| 2022-10-18 | 2022 Senate · NC | R+4.2 | R+3.2 | -1.0 | autopsy |
| 2022-10-18 | 2022 Governor · MN | R+0.5 | D+7.7 | -8.2 | autopsy |
| 2021-10-30 | 2021 Governor · NJ | D+4.2 | D+3.2 | +1.0 | autopsy |
| 2021-10-30 | 2021 Governor · VA | R+2.3 | R+1.9 | -0.4 | autopsy |
| 2021-10-12 | 2021 Governor · VA | R+0.9 | R+1.9 | +1.0 | autopsy |
| 2021-01-03 | 2020 Senate · GA | R+1.3 | D+2.1 | -3.4 | autopsy |
| 2021-01-03 | 2020 Senate · GA | D+0.9 | D+1.2 | -0.3 | autopsy |
| 2020-12-25 | 2020 Senate · GA | D+0.8 | D+2.1 | -1.3 | autopsy |
| 2020-12-25 | 2020 Senate · GA | D+2.7 | D+1.2 | +1.5 | autopsy |
| 2020-12-15 | 2020 Senate · GA | R+6.7 | D+2.1 | -8.8 | autopsy |
| 2020-12-15 | 2020 Senate · GA | R+2.7 | D+1.2 | -3.9 | autopsy |
| 2020-11-01 | 2020 President · FL | R+2.1 | R+3.4 | +1.3 | autopsy |
| 2020-11-01 | 2020 President · GA | R+4.3 | D+0.2 | -4.5 | autopsy |
| 2020-11-01 | 2020 President · NV | R+0.7 | D+2.4 | -3.1 | autopsy |
| 2020-10-30 | 2020 President · MI | R+2.5 | D+2.8 | -5.3 | autopsy |
| 2020-10-30 | 2020 President · OH | R+4.8 | R+8.0 | +3.2 | autopsy |
| 2020-10-30 | 2020 President · PA | R+1.9 | D+1.2 | -3.1 | autopsy |
| 2020-10-28 | 2020 President · NC | R+2.0 | R+1.3 | -0.7 | autopsy |
| 2020-10-28 | 2020 President · NV | D+2.3 | D+2.4 | -0.1 | autopsy |
| 2020-10-27 | 2020 President · AZ | R+2.5 | D+0.3 | -2.8 | autopsy |
| 2020-10-27 | 2020 President · FL | R+2.7 | R+3.4 | +0.7 | autopsy |
| 2020-10-27 | 2020 President · MI | R+2.5 | D+2.8 | -5.3 | autopsy |
| 2020-10-24 | 2020 President · MN | D+3.2 | D+7.1 | -3.9 | autopsy |
| 2020-10-24 | 2020 President · PA | R+0.8 | D+1.2 | -2.0 | autopsy |
| 2020-10-24 | 2020 President · WI | D+0.4 | D+0.6 | -0.2 | autopsy |
| 2020-10-21 | 2020 President · NC | R+2.8 | R+1.3 | -1.5 | autopsy |
| 2020-10-21 | 2020 Senate · NC | R+1.8 | R+1.7 | -0.1 | autopsy |
| 2020-10-17 | 2020 President · MI | R+1.8 | D+2.8 | -4.6 | autopsy |
| 2020-10-17 | 2020 Senate · MI | R+2.2 | D+1.7 | -3.9 | autopsy |
| 2020-10-15 | 2020 President · WI | D+1.3 | D+0.6 | +0.7 | autopsy |
| 2020-10-14 | 2020 President · PA | D+1.1 | D+1.2 | -0.1 | autopsy |
| 2020-10-13 | 2020 President · MI | R+0.6 | D+2.8 | -3.4 | autopsy |
| 2020-10-13 | 2020 Senate · MI | R+1.4 | D+1.7 | -3.1 | autopsy |
| 2019-11-14 | 2019 Governor · LA | R+1.2 | D+2.7 | -3.9 | autopsy |
| 2019-10-31 | 2019 Governor · KY | R+5.9 | D+0.4 | -6.3 | autopsy |
| 2018-11-04 | 2018 Senate · AZ | R+2.1 | D+2.3 | -4.4 | autopsy |
| 2018-11-04 | 2018 Senate · FL | R+1.7 | R+0.1 | -1.6 | autopsy |
| 2018-11-04 | 2018 Senate · MI | D+9.0 | D+6.5 | +2.5 | autopsy |
| 2018-11-04 | 2018 Senate · MT | D+1.1 | D+3.6 | -2.5 | autopsy |
| 2018-11-04 | 2018 Senate · TX | R+8.9 | R+2.6 | -6.3 | autopsy |
| 2018-11-04 | 2018 Governor · FL | R+3.4 | R+0.4 | -3.0 | autopsy |
| 2018-11-03 | 2018 Governor · OH | D+3.6 | R+3.7 | +7.3 | autopsy |
| 2018-11-01 | 2018 Senate · MO | R+3.9 | R+5.8 | +1.9 | autopsy |
| 2018-11-01 | 2018 Governor · GA | R+12.3 | R+1.4 | -10.9 | autopsy |
| 2018-10-31 | 2018 Senate · AZ | D+2.7 | D+2.3 | +0.4 | autopsy |
| 2018-10-31 | 2018 Senate · NV | R+3.3 | D+5.0 | -8.3 | autopsy |
| 2018-10-31 | 2018 Governor · NV | R+2.1 | D+4.1 | -6.2 | autopsy |
| 2018-10-30 | 2018 Governor · SC | R+16.2 | R+8.0 | -8.2 | autopsy |
| 2018-10-29 | 2018 Senate · FL | D+2.2 | R+0.1 | +2.3 | autopsy |
| 2018-10-29 | 2018 Governor · FL | D+2.3 | R+0.4 | +2.7 | autopsy |
| 2018-10-23 | 2018 Senate · ND | R+9.0 | R+10.8 | +1.8 | autopsy |
| 2017-12-06 | 2017 Senate · AL | R+5.1 | D+1.6 | -6.7 | autopsy |
| 2017-11-01 | 2017 Governor · VA | D+1.8 | D+8.9 | -7.1 | autopsy |
| 2017-06-17 | 2017 House · GA-6 | R+1.9 | R+3.6 | +1.7 | autopsy |
| 2017-06-12 | 2017 House · GA-6 | D+2.8 | R+3.6 | +6.3 | autopsy |
| 2016-12-05 | 2016 Senate · LA | R+16.1 | R+21.3 | +5.2 | autopsy |
| 2016-11-06 | 2016 President · FL | R+3.6 | R+1.2 | -2.4 | autopsy |
| 2016-11-06 | 2016 President · GA | R+6.5 | R+5.1 | -1.3 | autopsy |
| 2016-11-06 | 2016 President · MI | R+1.7 | R+0.2 | -1.5 | autopsy |
| 2016-11-04 | 2016 President · PA | R+1.9 | R+0.7 | -1.2 | autopsy |
| 2016-11-04 | 2016 President · UT | R+10.4 | R+18.1 | +7.6 | autopsy |
| 2016-11-03 | 2016 President · NV | R+4.6 | D+2.4 | -7.0 | autopsy |
| 2016-11-02 | 2016 President · CO | D+0.4 | D+4.9 | -4.5 | autopsy |
| 2016-10-29 | 2016 President · FL | R+3.9 | R+1.2 | -2.7 | autopsy |
| 2016-10-29 | 2016 President · NC | R+5.0 | R+3.7 | -1.3 | autopsy |
| 2016-10-25 | 2016 President · OH | R+4.4 | R+8.1 | +3.7 | autopsy |