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2019 Governor · KY

Trafalgar Group · fieldwork ended 2019-10-31 (5 days before the election) · 1,117 respondents · IVR/Live Phone/Text/Online Panel/Email · partisan sponsor (REP)

The poll said

Democrat 46.5% · Republican 52.4%

R+5.9

The certified result

Democrat 49.19% · Republican 48.84%

D+0.4

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 46.5 − 52.4 = -5.90
  2. Actual margin = 49.191 − 48.835 = 0.356
  3. Signed miss = -5.90 − (0.356) = -6.256
  4. Absolute miss = |-6.256| = 6.256

The poll overstated the Republican by 6.3 points and had the wrong leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 62574, race ID 6208 (538 database).