2026 midterm polling
Plain and corrected polling averages as of 2026-10-24: each pollster's latest poll whose fieldwork ended in the last 21 days. The correction subtracts each pollster's average miss against actual results in past midterms. It is experimental: in our preregistered test it made the average less accurate in every midterm from 2006 to 2022 (E003), so read both columns. These are polling averages, not forecasts.
House: national generic ballot
Plain average D+7.0, corrected D+6.5, from 4 pollsters (1 with at least 10 scored polls in past midterms), fieldwork through 2026-10-19. A national vote margin does not translate directly into seats.
Senate: 35 seats up
Seats not up: Democrats 34, Republicans 31. Majority: 51, or 50 with the Vice President (Republican). Counting seats not up plus races led by at least 3 points, the chamber stands at D 43 · R 35 (corrected) or D 43 · R 35 (plain), leaving 6 races within 3 points and 13 not polled recently.
| Race | Plain | Corrected | Pollsters | Latest fieldwork |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SCwithin 3 | R+0.8 | R+0.1 | 4 | 2026-10-21 |
| IAwithin 3 | R+0.4 | D+0.6 | 10 | 2026-10-22 |
| MIwithin 3 | D+1.6 | D+1.2 | 7 | 2026-10-22 |
| MEwithin 3 | D+2.3 | D+2.0 | 6 | 2026-10-20 |
| KSwithin 3 | D+2.3 | D+2.2 | 3 | 2026-10-14 |
| TXwithin 3 | D+2.2 | D+2.4 | 17 | 2026-10-21 |
| OH (special) | D+3.1 | D+3.6 | 10 | 2026-10-22 |
| MS | R+3.5 | R+4.6 | 2 | 2026-10-22 |
| MN | D+4.3 | D+4.8 | 6 | 2026-10-21 |
| NH | D+6.7 | D+6.1 | 3 | 2026-10-20 |
| FL (special) | R+6.8 | R+6.6 | 9 | 2026-10-20 |
| GA | D+8.2 | D+9.1 | 5 | 2026-10-20 |
| NC | D+10.8 | D+11.1 | 7 | 2026-10-20 |
| AR | R+10.0 | R+11.8 | 2 | 2026-10-13 |
| NM | D+16.0 | D+16.9 | 1 | 2026-10-09 |
| IL | D+17.0 | D+17.0 | 1 | 2026-10-20 |
| AL | R+18.0 | R+18.6 | 2 | 2026-10-17 |
| MA | D+27.5 | D+27.1 | 2 | 2026-10-18 |
| RI | D+28.5 | D+27.9 | 2 | 2026-10-11 |
Polls: PollingForecast feed as captured 2026-10-24T16:03:35Z (SHA-256 7be25d819db4…); each poll links to its own release there. Corrections: each pollster's plain average miss against certified results in the 1998–2022 midterms, for pollsters with at least 10 scored midterm polls; others are not corrected.