Polling error by election
How far the polls were from the certified result, by year and office. Lean is the average signed miss on the Democrat-minus-Republican margin.
| Election | Polls | Races | Lean (95% range) | Average miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 SEN | 252 | 27 | 3.0 pts toward Democrats (2.2 to 4.0) | 3.9 |
| 2024 PRES | 513 | 46 | 2.7 pts toward Democrats (2.1 to 3.5) | 3.3 |
| 2024 HOUSE | 59 | 41 | 3.6 pts toward Democrats (1.7 to 5.4) | 5.8 |
| 2024 GOV | 40 | 8 | 2.9 pts toward Democrats (0.5 to 8.2) | 5.2 |
| 2022 SEN | 214 | 28 | 1.0 pts toward Republicans (-2.8 to 1.2) | 4.7 |
| 2022 HOUSE | 52 | 38 | 2.9 pts toward Republicans (-4.4 to -1.3) | 5.0 |
| 2022 GOV | 220 | 31 | no lean (-2.0 to 2.3) | 4.8 |
| 2021 HOUSEsmall sample | 2 | 2 | 1.6 pts toward Republicans (-8.7 to 5.5) | 7.1 |
| 2021 GOV | 25 | 2 | 2.2 pts toward Democrats (1.5 to 4.1) | 3.0 |
| 2020 SEN | 269 | 29 | 4.7 pts toward Democrats (3.5 to 5.8) | 5.5 |
| 2020 PRES | 592 | 55 | 4.0 pts toward Democrats (3.4 to 4.7) | 4.8 |
| 2020 HOUSE | 72 | 54 | 6.6 pts toward Democrats (5.1 to 8.1) | 7.2 |
| 2020 GOV | 38 | 8 | 7.2 pts toward Democrats (5.6 to 10.6) | 7.5 |
| 2019 HOUSEsmall sample | 4 | 2 | 5.8 pts toward Democrats (3.3 to 13.3) | 5.8 |
| 2019 GOV | 14 | 3 | 1.2 pts toward Democrats (-1.2 to 6.2) | 4.0 |
| 2018 SEN | 175 | 27 | 0.7 pts toward Democrats (-0.9 to 2.0) | 4.0 |
| 2018 HOUSE | 166 | 102 | 0.6 pts toward Republicans (-1.9 to 0.7) | 5.4 |
| 2018 GOV | 165 | 32 | 0.1 pts toward Democrats (-2.5 to 1.8) | 4.8 |
| 2017 SEN | 18 | 1 | 4.4 pts toward Republicans (-4.4 to -4.4) | 6.1 |
| 2017 HOUSE | 12 | 3 | 2.7 pts toward Democrats (-5.9 to 5.1) | 5.1 |
| 2017 GOV | 32 | 2 | 3.9 pts toward Republicans (-5.8 to 1.0) | 5.1 |
| 2016 SEN | 253 | 33 | 4.0 pts toward Democrats (2.9 to 5.1) | 5.5 |
| 2016 PRES | 606 | 55 | 3.4 pts toward Democrats (2.3 to 4.6) | 5.2 |
| 2016 HOUSE | 39 | 26 | 3.7 pts toward Democrats (1.1 to 6.8) | 6.9 |
| 2016 GOV | 68 | 12 | 4.7 pts toward Democrats (2.5 to 6.9) | 6.2 |
| 2015 HOUSEsmall sample | 1 | 1 | 22.9 pts toward Democrats (22.9 to 22.9) | 22.9 |
| 2015 GOV | 16 | 3 | 2.9 pts toward Democrats (-4.1 to 12.0) | 6.6 |
| 2014 SEN | 205 | 34 | 3.2 pts toward Democrats (1.3 to 5.1) | 5.1 |
| 2014 HOUSE | 97 | 56 | 3.3 pts toward Democrats (1.4 to 5.2) | 6.6 |
| 2014 GOV | 220 | 35 | 2.7 pts toward Democrats (1.3 to 4.2) | 4.8 |
| 2013 SEN | 21 | 2 | 0.2 pts toward Democrats (-1.5 to 2.5) | 3.4 |
| 2013 HOUSEsmall sample | 4 | 1 | 14.3 pts toward Democrats (14.3 to 14.3) | 14.3 |
| 2013 GOV | 23 | 2 | 2.8 pts toward Democrats (-3.3 to 5.5) | 5.8 |
| 2012 SEN | 215 | 28 | 3.4 pts toward Republicans (-4.5 to -2.3) | 4.6 |
| 2012 PRES | 426 | 41 | 2.3 pts toward Republicans (-3.1 to -1.6) | 3.5 |
| 2012 HOUSE | 107 | 66 | 4.3 pts toward Republicans (-5.9 to -2.9) | 6.4 |
| 2012 GOV | 52 | 9 | 2.4 pts toward Republicans (-5.6 to 0.7) | 5.0 |
| 2011 HOUSE | 11 | 4 | 2.0 pts toward Republicans (-6.2 to 3.5) | 5.7 |
| 2011 GOVsmall sample | 5 | 3 | 5.2 pts toward Democrats (3.0 to 8.0) | 5.8 |
| 2010 SEN | 249 | 34 | 1.6 pts toward Republicans (-3.3 to 0.4) | 5.3 |
| 2010 HOUSE | 211 | 121 | 0.5 pts toward Democrats (-0.9 to 1.9) | 7.0 |
| 2010 GOV | 233 | 35 | 0.4 pts toward Republicans (-2.1 to 1.7) | 4.8 |
| 2009 HOUSEsmall sample | 7 | 3 | 14.8 pts toward Republicans (-21.4 to 3.1) | 15.7 |
| 2009 GOV | 38 | 2 | 3.3 pts toward Democrats (3.1 to 3.5) | 3.9 |
| 2008 SEN | 182 | 34 | 0.2 pts toward Republicans (-1.7 to 1.5) | 4.6 |
| 2008 PRES | 500 | 55 | 0.1 pts toward Republicans (-0.8 to 0.7) | 3.4 |
| 2008 HOUSE | 96 | 62 | 1.6 pts toward Democrats (-0.1 to 3.5) | 6.2 |
| 2008 GOV | 42 | 9 | 0.7 pts toward Republicans (-2.7 to 2.3) | 3.8 |
| 2007 HOUSEsmall sample | 1 | 1 | 2.8 pts toward Democrats (2.8 to 2.8) | 2.8 |
| 2007 GOVsmall sample | 5 | 1 | 3.0 pts toward Democrats (3.0 to 3.0) | 4.0 |
| 2006 SEN | 212 | 27 | 2.2 pts toward Republicans (-4.1 to -0.4) | 5.0 |
| 2006 HOUSE | 183 | 90 | 0.2 pts toward Democrats (-0.9 to 1.5) | 5.8 |
| 2006 GOV | 188 | 32 | 0.2 pts toward Republicans (-1.6 to 1.2) | 4.9 |
| 2005 GOV | 24 | 2 | 3.4 pts toward Republicans (-3.5 to -3.4) | 3.7 |
| 2004 SEN | 154 | 26 | 0.6 pts toward Democrats (-1.6 to 2.9) | 4.9 |
| 2004 PRES | 405 | 45 | 1.2 pts toward Democrats (0.5 to 1.9) | 3.2 |
| 2004 HOUSE | 66 | 41 | 0.3 pts toward Democrats (-1.4 to 1.9) | 5.5 |
| 2004 GOV | 29 | 9 | 0.7 pts toward Democrats (-1.2 to 2.3) | 3.1 |
| 2003 GOV | 31 | 4 | 0.3 pts toward Democrats (-6.9 to 4.9) | 6.1 |
| 2002 SEN | 144 | 27 | 2.2 pts toward Democrats (0.5 to 3.8) | 5.0 |
| 2002 HOUSE | 71 | 37 | 0.4 pts toward Democrats (-2.1 to 2.7) | 5.8 |
| 2002 GOV | 180 | 36 | 3.7 pts toward Democrats (2.1 to 4.9) | 5.5 |
| 2001 GOV | 14 | 2 | 1.8 pts toward Democrats (1.1 to 2.7) | 3.3 |
| 2000 SEN | 185 | 30 | 2.6 pts toward Republicans (-4.5 to -0.5) | 5.4 |
| 2000 PRES | 375 | 50 | 2.3 pts toward Republicans (-3.2 to -1.3) | 4.4 |
| 2000 HOUSE | 36 | 28 | 0.5 pts toward Democrats (-1.5 to 2.7) | 5.2 |
| 2000 GOV | 39 | 11 | 0.6 pts toward Republicans (-2.1 to 0.8) | 3.9 |
| 1999 GOVsmall sample | 1 | 1 | 6.1 pts toward Republicans (-6.1 to -6.1) | 6.1 |
| 1998 SEN | 100 | 25 | 4.8 pts toward Republicans (-7.5 to -1.3) | 7.4 |
| 1998 HOUSE | 34 | 28 | 4.4 pts toward Republicans (-8.5 to -0.8) | 8.0 |
| 1998 GOV | 119 | 28 | 5.9 pts toward Republicans (-8.7 to -3.1) | 8.7 |