Polling error by election
How far the polls were from the certified result, by year and office. Lean is the average signed miss on the Democrat-minus-Republican margin.
| Election | Polls | Races | Lean (95% range) | Average miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 SEN | 300 | 27 | 3.2 pts toward Democrats (2.3 to 4.1) | 4.0 |
| 2024 PRES | 644 | 46 | 2.8 pts toward Democrats (2.2 to 3.5) | 3.3 |
| 2024 HOUSE | 79 | 49 | 3.3 pts toward Democrats (1.6 to 5.0) | 5.6 |
| 2024 GOV | 49 | 8 | 2.4 pts toward Democrats (0.0 to 7.8) | 4.8 |
| 2022 SEN | 279 | 28 | 0.4 pts toward Republicans (-2.1 to 1.7) | 4.6 |
| 2022 HOUSE | 74 | 55 | 1.8 pts toward Republicans (-3.6 to -0.4) | 5.3 |
| 2022 GOV | 291 | 31 | 0.1 pts toward Democrats (-1.9 to 2.3) | 4.7 |
| 2021 HOUSEsmall sample | 2 | 2 | 1.6 pts toward Republicans (-8.7 to 5.5) | 7.1 |
| 2021 GOV | 29 | 2 | 2.7 pts toward Democrats (2.1 to 4.4) | 3.4 |
| 2020 SEN | 325 | 29 | 4.6 pts toward Democrats (3.3 to 5.7) | 5.4 |
| 2020 PRES | 785 | 55 | 4.3 pts toward Democrats (3.7 to 4.9) | 5.0 |
| 2020 HOUSE | 102 | 67 | 6.6 pts toward Democrats (5.2 to 8.1) | 7.4 |
| 2020 GOV | 49 | 8 | 6.2 pts toward Democrats (3.2 to 9.2) | 7.3 |
| 2019 HOUSEsmall sample | 4 | 2 | 5.8 pts toward Democrats (3.3 to 13.3) | 5.8 |
| 2019 GOV | 16 | 3 | 1.0 pts toward Democrats (-1.0 to 4.0) | 3.6 |
| 2018 SEN | 212 | 27 | 0.4 pts toward Democrats (-1.2 to 2.0) | 4.3 |
| 2018 HOUSE | 242 | 120 | 1.2 pts toward Republicans (-2.4 to 0.0) | 5.6 |
| 2018 GOV | 199 | 33 | 0.4 pts toward Republicans (-2.8 to 1.3) | 4.9 |
| 2017 SEN | 25 | 1 | 3.0 pts toward Republicans (-3.0 to -3.0) | 6.0 |
| 2017 HOUSE | 17 | 4 | 1.1 pts toward Democrats (-6.3 to 5.2) | 5.1 |
| 2017 GOV | 40 | 2 | 3.3 pts toward Republicans (-5.3 to 1.2) | 4.8 |
| 2016 SEN | 318 | 33 | 4.0 pts toward Democrats (2.9 to 5.2) | 5.4 |
| 2016 PRES | 774 | 55 | 3.9 pts toward Democrats (2.9 to 5.0) | 5.5 |
| 2016 HOUSE | 89 | 52 | 4.3 pts toward Democrats (2.5 to 6.3) | 7.1 |
| 2016 GOV | 92 | 12 | 4.7 pts toward Democrats (2.8 to 7.1) | 6.1 |
| 2015 HOUSEsmall sample | 1 | 1 | 22.9 pts toward Democrats (22.9 to 22.9) | 22.9 |
| 2015 GOV | 20 | 3 | 3.5 pts toward Democrats (-4.1 to 11.7) | 6.4 |
| 2014 SEN | 247 | 34 | 3.1 pts toward Democrats (1.1 to 5.1) | 5.1 |
| 2014 HOUSE | 128 | 63 | 2.2 pts toward Democrats (-0.1 to 4.6) | 7.0 |
| 2014 GOV | 271 | 35 | 2.8 pts toward Democrats (1.3 to 4.3) | 4.7 |
| 2013 SEN | 28 | 2 | 0.8 pts toward Democrats (-1.5 to 3.9) | 3.8 |
| 2013 HOUSEsmall sample | 4 | 1 | 14.3 pts toward Democrats (14.3 to 14.3) | 14.3 |
| 2013 GOV | 28 | 2 | 1.7 pts toward Democrats (-3.5 to 5.5) | 5.5 |
| 2012 SEN | 309 | 28 | 3.7 pts toward Republicans (-4.8 to -2.5) | 5.0 |
| 2012 PRES | 576 | 44 | 2.6 pts toward Republicans (-3.3 to -1.8) | 3.6 |
| 2012 HOUSE | 151 | 71 | 4.6 pts toward Republicans (-6.1 to -3.3) | 6.8 |
| 2012 GOV | 74 | 9 | 2.6 pts toward Republicans (-6.3 to 0.5) | 5.0 |
| 2011 HOUSE | 14 | 4 | 0.6 pts toward Republicans (-7.8 to 9.2) | 7.7 |
| 2011 GOVsmall sample | 5 | 3 | 5.2 pts toward Democrats (3.0 to 8.0) | 5.8 |
| 2010 SEN | 330 | 35 | 1.3 pts toward Republicans (-3.2 to 0.5) | 5.4 |
| 2010 HOUSE | 318 | 140 | 0.6 pts toward Democrats (-0.7 to 1.7) | 6.8 |
| 2010 GOV | 303 | 36 | 0.2 pts toward Republicans (-2.2 to 2.0) | 4.9 |
| 2009 HOUSEsmall sample | 9 | 3 | 16.0 pts toward Republicans (-23.7 to -0.0) | 16.7 |
| 2009 GOV | 49 | 2 | 3.7 pts toward Democrats (3.4 to 4.2) | 4.0 |
| 2008 SEN | 226 | 34 | 0.4 pts toward Republicans (-1.8 to 1.2) | 4.4 |
| 2008 PRES | 647 | 55 | 0.3 pts toward Republicans (-1.0 to 0.7) | 3.5 |
| 2008 HOUSE | 138 | 77 | 1.9 pts toward Democrats (0.2 to 3.7) | 6.7 |
| 2008 GOV | 55 | 11 | 0.8 pts toward Republicans (-2.6 to 2.0) | 4.2 |
| 2007 HOUSEsmall sample | 2 | 2 | 1.5 pts toward Democrats (0.1 to 2.8) | 1.5 |
| 2007 GOVsmall sample | 6 | 1 | 2.3 pts toward Democrats (2.3 to 2.3) | 3.5 |
| 2006 SEN | 265 | 28 | 2.3 pts toward Republicans (-4.3 to -0.6) | 5.2 |
| 2006 HOUSE | 264 | 98 | 0.3 pts toward Democrats (-1.0 to 1.5) | 6.0 |
| 2006 GOV | 250 | 33 | 0.6 pts toward Republicans (-1.9 to 0.8) | 5.1 |
| 2005 GOV | 31 | 2 | 3.5 pts toward Republicans (-4.0 to -3.3) | 3.8 |
| 2004 SEN | 190 | 26 | 1.0 pts toward Democrats (-1.5 to 3.4) | 5.3 |
| 2004 PRES | 515 | 45 | 1.2 pts toward Democrats (0.6 to 1.9) | 3.2 |
| 2004 HOUSE | 82 | 45 | 0.8 pts toward Democrats (-0.9 to 2.3) | 5.6 |
| 2004 GOV | 35 | 9 | 1.6 pts toward Democrats (-0.3 to 3.1) | 3.6 |
| 2003 GOV | 40 | 4 | 1.2 pts toward Democrats (-5.8 to 6.6) | 6.6 |
| 2002 SEN | 176 | 27 | 1.9 pts toward Democrats (0.4 to 3.5) | 5.0 |
| 2002 HOUSE | 90 | 43 | 0.3 pts toward Democrats (-2.0 to 2.6) | 5.8 |
| 2002 GOV | 227 | 36 | 3.7 pts toward Democrats (1.9 to 5.0) | 5.7 |
| 2001 GOV | 16 | 2 | 1.7 pts toward Democrats (0.7 to 3.0) | 3.3 |
| 2000 SEN | 213 | 30 | 2.7 pts toward Republicans (-4.5 to -0.5) | 5.6 |
| 2000 PRES | 437 | 50 | 2.4 pts toward Republicans (-3.3 to -1.3) | 4.5 |
| 2000 HOUSE | 38 | 29 | 0.1 pts toward Democrats (-1.9 to 2.4) | 5.3 |
| 2000 GOV | 42 | 11 | 0.4 pts toward Republicans (-2.2 to 1.5) | 4.1 |
| 1999 GOVsmall sample | 2 | 2 | 5.8 pts toward Republicans (-6.1 to -5.5) | 5.8 |
| 1998 SEN | 125 | 26 | 5.1 pts toward Republicans (-8.1 to -1.6) | 7.7 |
| 1998 HOUSE | 36 | 30 | 3.4 pts toward Republicans (-7.3 to 0.0) | 8.3 |
| 1998 GOV | 149 | 29 | 6.0 pts toward Republicans (-8.7 to -3.3) | 9.0 |