Pollster track records
Every general-election poll of a Democrat against a Republican in the final 21 days since 1998, compared with the certified result, and graded.
| Grade | Pollster | Polls | Vs. other polls | Lean | Average miss | Winner called | Years |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A+ | Dan Jones & Associates | 35 | -2.08 | 1.8 pts toward Democrats | 4.4 | 97% | 2002–2016 |
| A+ | St. Anselm | 12 | -1.50 | 1.0 pts toward Republicans | 4.4 | 83% | 2020–2024 |
| A+ | Blum & Weprin Associates | 15 | -1.54 | 2.6 pts toward Republicans | 4.6 | 100% | 1998–2010 |
| A+ | Ward Research | 15 | -1.43 | 1.4 pts toward Republicans | 5.8 | 85% | 1998–2014 |
| A+ | AtlasIntel | 95 | -1.30 | 0.2 pts toward Democrats | 1.8 | 82% | 2020–2024 |
| A+ | Selzer | 34 | -1.09 | 0.7 pts toward Democrats | 3.1 | 85% | 1998–2024 |
| A+ | Fleming & Associates | 17 | -1.29 | 1.1 pts toward Republicans | 5.3 | 94% | 1998–2018 |
| A | Emerson | 258 | -1.00 | 0.7 pts toward Democrats | 4.0 | 78% | 2013–2024 |
| A | Øptimus Analytics | 14 | -1.01 | 1.5 pts toward Republicans | 5.4 | 86% | 2014–2020 |
| A | Cygnal | 53 | -1.25 | 3.1 pts toward Democrats | 4.1 | 94% | 2014–2024 |
| A | Fairleigh Dickinson | 22 | -0.67 | 0.1 pts toward Democrats | 4.5 | 95% | 2001–2024 |
| A | MassINC Polling Group | 15 | -0.90 | 1.8 pts toward Republicans | 2.6 | 87% | 2010–2024 |
| A | Marquette Law School | 13 | -0.57 | 0.9 pts toward Democrats | 2.3 | 73% | 2012–2024 |
| A | Research & Polling | 48 | -1.17 | 0.6 pts toward Republicans | 4.0 | 90% | 1998–2024 |
| A | Data Orbital | 17 | -0.52 | 0.1 pts toward Democrats | 2.6 | 82% | 2016–2024 |
| A | U. North Florida | 13 | -0.53 | 5.3 pts toward Democrats | 5.3 | 54% | 2004–2024 |
| A | ActiVote | 62 | -0.73 | 3.2 pts toward Democrats | 3.3 | 94% | 2024 |
| A | Monmouth | 81 | -0.51 | 2.7 pts toward Democrats | 5.0 | 72% | 2005–2024 |
| A | Field Research Corp. (Field Poll) | 18 | -0.94 | 2.5 pts toward Republicans | 3.8 | 100% | 1998–2014 |
| A | Echelon Insights | 14 | -0.55 | 0.3 pts toward Republicans | 1.9 | 80% | 2020–2024 |
| A | University of Massachusetts Lowell/YouGov | 28 | -0.52 | 2.1 pts toward Democrats | 3.7 | 85% | 2012–2024 |
| A− | Noble Predictive Insights | 19 | -0.76 | 1.1 pts toward Democrats | 3.9 | 63% | 2018–2024 |
| A− | Columbus Dispatch | 17 | -0.84 | 3.0 pts toward Democrats | 4.2 | 94% | 1998–2016 |
| A− | Siena | 62 | -0.66 | 2.5 pts toward Republicans | 5.8 | 93% | 2002–2024 |
| A− | Leger | 12 | -0.39 | 0.9 pts toward Democrats | 2.9 | 91% | 2016–2024 |
| A− | Pan Atlantic Research | 17 | -0.64 | 4.3 pts toward Democrats | 7.5 | 94% | 2000–2014 |
| A− | Siena/NYT | 111 | -0.46 | 1.7 pts toward Democrats | 4.1 | 75% | 2016–2024 |
| A− | Suffolk | 63 | -0.48 | 1.4 pts toward Democrats | 3.9 | 80% | 2002–2024 |
| A− | Maine People's Resource Center | 14 | -0.76 | 0.5 pts toward Democrats | 6.2 | 93% | 2010–2016 |
| A− | ABC News/The Washington Post | 54 | -0.34 | 1.0 pts toward Democrats | 3.1 | 74% | 1998–2020 |
| A− | SurveyUSA | 707 | -0.37 | no lean | 4.2 | 90% | 1998–2024 |
| A− | KRC Research | 10 | -0.70 | 2.1 pts toward Democrats | 5.0 | 80% | 1998–2002 |
| A− | Mason-Dixon | 378 | -0.60 | 0.7 pts toward Republicans | 4.6 | 87% | 1998–2024 |
| A− | U. New Hampshire | 133 | -0.21 | 2.6 pts toward Democrats | 5.8 | 88% | 2000–2024 |
| A− | Angus Reid | 32 | -0.56 | 2.3 pts toward Republicans | 3.3 | 93% | 2010–2024 |
| A− | Muhlenberg | 35 | -0.36 | 0.2 pts toward Republicans | 3.3 | 82% | 2004–2024 |
| B+ | Christopher Newport U. | 14 | -0.32 | 3.0 pts toward Democrats | 3.7 | 93% | 2010–2024 |
| B+ | Susquehanna | 53 | -0.55 | 0.8 pts toward Democrats | 4.8 | 65% | 2006–2024 |
| B+ | Ipsos | 155 | -0.21 | 2.1 pts toward Democrats | 4.6 | 80% | 2003–2024 |
| B+ | RT Strategies | 43 | -0.63 | 0.9 pts toward Democrats | 5.3 | 70% | 2006 |
| B+ | Harper Polling | 10 | -0.80 | 1.7 pts toward Democrats | 1.8 | 75% | 2013–2020 |
| B+ | DHM Research | 12 | -0.53 | 0.3 pts toward Republicans | 2.5 | 92% | 2000–2016 |
| B+ | FTI Consulting | 19 | -0.57 | 0.6 pts toward Republicans | 2.0 | 100% | 2008 |
| B+ | OnMessage Inc. | 28 | -0.94 | 2.3 pts toward Republicans | 3.4 | 83% | 2003–2024 |
| B+ | SurveyMonkey | 254 | -0.05 | 5.2 pts toward Democrats | 6.5 | 88% | 2016–2020 |
| B+ | Research Co. | 83 | -0.42 | 2.0 pts toward Democrats | 4.1 | 89% | 2018–2024 |
| B+ | St. Pete Polls | 27 | -0.20 | 1.0 pts toward Democrats | 5.3 | 60% | 2012–2024 |
| B+ | Elway Research | 20 | -0.34 | 2.1 pts toward Democrats | 3.7 | 90% | 2000–2016 |
| B+ | East Carolina University | 15 | -0.22 | 3.1 pts toward Democrats | 3.5 | 71% | 2020–2024 |
| B+ | Western New England University Polling Institute | 10 | -0.40 | 1.3 pts toward Republicans | 3.4 | 100% | 2010–2018 |
| B | Quinnipiac | 179 | +0.01 | 0.7 pts toward Democrats | 4.5 | 83% | 1998–2024 |
| B | MRG Research | 24 | -0.13 | 7.1 pts toward Republicans | 8.8 | 86% | 2010–2014 |
| B | University of Cincinnati (Ohio Poll) | 30 | -0.36 | 3.2 pts toward Republicans | 4.0 | 97% | 1998–2012 |
| B | Washington Post/George Mason University | 17 | +0.05 | 2.0 pts toward Democrats | 2.8 | 71% | 2016–2024 |
| B | Big Village | 67 | -0.00 | 0.3 pts toward Republicans | 3.8 | 80% | 2006–2024 |
| B | Grove Insight | 26 | -0.34 | 1.2 pts toward Democrats | 3.2 | 88% | 2006–2012 |
| B | PPIC | 14 | +0.16 | 2.3 pts toward Republicans | 4.7 | 100% | 2004–2024 |
| B | CBS News | 11 | -0.07 | 1.0 pts toward Democrats | 2.7 | 80% | 2000–2016 |
| B | TIPP | 52 | -0.50 | 0.1 pts toward Democrats | 2.3 | 62% | 2000–2024 |
| B | co/efficient | 21 | -0.33 | 4.5 pts toward Republicans | 5.0 | 68% | 2019–2024 |
| B | Patriot Polling | 22 | -0.27 | 0.8 pts toward Republicans | 2.8 | 73% | 2022–2024 |
| B | Marist College | 136 | +0.05 | 0.6 pts toward Democrats | 4.7 | 83% | 1998–2024 |
| B | Tarrance | 27 | -0.66 | 2.5 pts toward Republicans | 4.4 | 84% | 1998–2024 |
| B | Civiqs | 38 | +0.05 | 4.1 pts toward Democrats | 4.7 | 81% | 2020–2022 |
| B | Garin-Hart-Yang Research Group | 29 | -0.52 | 2.4 pts toward Democrats | 4.8 | 93% | 1998–2022 |
| B | PPP | 328 | -0.34 | 1.0 pts toward Democrats | 4.2 | 84% | 2008–2024 |
| B | EPIC-MRA | 50 | -0.40 | 0.4 pts toward Democrats | 4.7 | 83% | 2000–2024 |
| B | Richard Day Research | 11 | -0.19 | 2.9 pts toward Republicans | 5.5 | 100% | 1998–2006 |
| B | InsiderAdvantage | 116 | -0.20 | 0.5 pts toward Democrats | 4.0 | 69% | 2004–2024 |
| B | RMG Research | 32 | -0.15 | 5.4 pts toward Democrats | 5.4 | 79% | 2020–2024 |
| B | Pew Research Center | 12 | +0.17 | 0.2 pts toward Democrats | 3.2 | 67% | 2000–2016 |
| B | Minneapolis Star Tribune | 14 | -0.17 | 5.1 pts toward Democrats | 5.1 | 57% | 1998–2006 |
| B− | Vox Populi Polling | 18 | -0.36 | 1.0 pts toward Democrats | 4.1 | 81% | 2014–2018 |
| B− | Landmark Communications | 33 | -0.20 | 1.3 pts toward Democrats | 4.3 | 64% | 2010–2022 |
| B− | Elon U. | 10 | +0.15 | 2.6 pts toward Democrats | 3.5 | 63% | 2008–2024 |
| B− | Data for Progress | 75 | -0.04 | 2.0 pts toward Democrats | 4.8 | 74% | 2019–2024 |
| B− | JMC Analytics | 11 | -0.14 | 2.7 pts toward Republicans | 5.9 | 90% | 2010–2020 |
| B− | University of Connecticut | 11 | -0.13 | 1.0 pts toward Republicans | 3.6 | 100% | 2002–2008 |
| B− | Redfield & Wilton Strategies | 41 | +0.28 | 3.3 pts toward Democrats | 3.7 | 77% | 2020–2024 |
| B− | New England College Polling Center | 19 | -0.10 | 3.1 pts toward Republicans | 4.2 | 76% | 2012–2014 |
| B− | Remington | 53 | +0.09 | 1.8 pts toward Democrats | 5.2 | 73% | 2012–2024 |
| B− | Rasmussen Reports | 128 | +0.06 | 2.0 pts toward Democrats | 4.8 | 74% | 2012–2022 |
| B− | Ciruli Associates | 21 | -0.09 | 1.7 pts toward Republicans | 3.9 | 90% | 1998–2016 |
| B− | Trafalgar Group | 120 | -0.38 | 2.2 pts toward Republicans | 3.7 | 63% | 2016–2024 |
| B− | Mitchell | 57 | +0.02 | 1.3 pts toward Democrats | 4.4 | 71% | 1998–2024 |
| B− | RKM Research and Communications Inc. | 20 | -0.04 | 0.3 pts toward Republicans | 5.3 | 84% | 1998–2016 |
| B− | YouGov | 500 | +0.37 | 1.6 pts toward Democrats | 5.0 | 86% | 2004–2024 |
| C+ | Hart/POS | 16 | -0.10 | 0.6 pts toward Democrats | 3.0 | 71% | 2000–2024 |
| C+ | Embold Research | 104 | -0.00 | 3.1 pts toward Democrats | 5.6 | 77% | 2017–2024 |
| C+ | Glengariff Group Inc. | 15 | -0.33 | 2.1 pts toward Democrats | 4.2 | 87% | 2010–2024 |
| C+ | National Research | 11 | -0.24 | 1.7 pts toward Republicans | 3.3 | 78% | 2008–2020 |
| C+ | Beacon/Shaw | 44 | +0.22 | 2.5 pts toward Democrats | 4.4 | 71% | 2012–2024 |
| C+ | Market Research Insight | 12 | -0.34 | 4.0 pts toward Republicans | 7.3 | 58% | 2003–2016 |
| C+ | MSU - Billings | 15 | +0.25 | 5.5 pts toward Democrats | 5.8 | 69% | 2000–2024 |
| C+ | Market Shares Corp. | 22 | +0.09 | 4.1 pts toward Republicans | 6.0 | 82% | 1998–2012 |
| C+ | Opinion Dynamics | 21 | +0.09 | 1.1 pts toward Republicans | 3.6 | 70% | 2000–2008 |
| C+ | CNN/SSRS | 14 | +0.53 | 3.9 pts toward Democrats | 3.9 | 58% | 2024 |
| C+ | Wick | 15 | +0.01 | 3.0 pts toward Republicans | 4.4 | 60% | 2020–2022 |
| C+ | Gallup | 52 | +0.62 | 1.9 pts toward Republicans | 4.1 | 62% | 2000–2012 |
| C+ | Princeton Survey Research Associates International | 18 | -0.07 | 1.8 pts toward Republicans | 4.3 | 78% | 2000–2012 |
| C+ | Abt Associates | 10 | +0.17 | 2.2 pts toward Democrats | 3.5 | 89% | 2004–2017 |
| C | SEA Polling & Strategic Design | 10 | -0.12 | 2.2 pts toward Democrats | 3.1 | 88% | 2002–2018 |
| C | PSB Research | 18 | +0.19 | 5.7 pts toward Democrats | 7.1 | 75% | 2006–2010 |
| C | Clarity | 13 | -0.20 | 3.6 pts toward Democrats | 3.6 | 42% | 2012–2024 |
| C | NMB Research | 79 | -0.07 | 2.4 pts toward Republicans | 5.3 | 69% | 1998–2024 |
| C | HarrisX | 179 | +0.19 | 1.5 pts toward Republicans | 5.3 | 84% | 1998–2024 |
| C | Kaplan Strategies | 127 | +0.13 | 1.7 pts toward Democrats | 4.6 | 68% | 2012–2024 |
| C | WPAi | 18 | +0.06 | 2.1 pts toward Republicans | 6.8 | 71% | 1998–2024 |
| C | The Tyson Group | 12 | -0.10 | 0.5 pts toward Democrats | 3.2 | 91% | 2004–2016 |
| C | CBS News/The New York Times | 20 | +0.28 | 2.1 pts toward Republicans | 5.3 | 79% | 1998–2016 |
| C | Franklin and Marshall College | 24 | +0.64 | 1.7 pts toward Democrats | 5.3 | 79% | 2004–2024 |
| C | St. Norbert College Strategic Research Institute | 11 | +0.28 | 0.1 pts toward Republicans | 5.0 | 90% | 1998–2014 |
| C | We Ask America | 36 | +0.29 | 1.9 pts toward Republicans | 4.7 | 86% | 2010–2014 |
| C | Lucid | 15 | +0.15 | 3.3 pts toward Democrats | 3.5 | 100% | 2016 |
| C | Lake Research Partners/The Tarrance Group | 19 | +0.35 | 3.6 pts toward Republicans | 3.8 | 71% | 2000–2012 |
| C | Los Angeles Times | 23 | +0.41 | 0.7 pts toward Republicans | 4.7 | 86% | 1998–2008 |
| C− | Swayable | 68 | +0.55 | 5.2 pts toward Democrats | 5.8 | 93% | 2020 |
| C− | SSRS | 26 | +0.86 | 4.4 pts toward Democrats | 5.4 | 62% | 2000–2022 |
| C− | Mellman Group | 28 | +0.14 | 4.2 pts toward Democrats | 4.8 | 85% | 2002–2020 |
| C− | GfK Group | 17 | +0.51 | 0.9 pts toward Democrats | 4.1 | 94% | 2008–2016 |
| C− | Scott Rasmussen (Rasmussen Reports) | 481 | +0.51 | 2.4 pts toward Republicans | 4.7 | 82% | 2000–2012 |
| C− | ccAdvertising | 32 | +0.52 | 5.2 pts toward Republicans | 7.3 | 88% | 2010–2013 |
| C− | American Research Group | 87 | +0.48 | 0.1 pts toward Democrats | 4.2 | 74% | 2000–2020 |
| C− | Big Ten | 10 | +0.55 | 4.2 pts toward Democrats | 4.7 | 100% | 2008 |
| C− | Roanoke College | 18 | +0.80 | 1.8 pts toward Democrats | 5.3 | 76% | 2001–2024 |
| C− | Zogby Analytics | 391 | +0.78 | 0.8 pts toward Republicans | 5.2 | 79% | 1998–2014 |
| C− | SoonerPoll.com | 22 | +1.28 | 6.5 pts toward Democrats | 7.7 | 82% | 2004–2022 |
| D | Targoz Market Research | 25 | +1.04 | 2.4 pts toward Democrats | 5.9 | 74% | 2018–2024 |
| D | Franklin Pierce University Marlin Fitzwater Center for Communication | 12 | +0.89 | 4.5 pts toward Democrats | 6.9 | 82% | 2000–2004 |
| D | GBAO | 13 | +0.61 | 3.2 pts toward Democrats | 5.5 | 82% | 2012–2024 |
| D | Morning Consult | 116 | +0.82 | 4.4 pts toward Democrats | 4.6 | 66% | 2016–2024 |
| D | Citizen Data | 11 | +0.91 | 6.7 pts toward Democrats | 6.7 | 55% | 2020 |
| D | Moore Information Group | 16 | +0.62 | 3.3 pts toward Republicans | 6.4 | 73% | 1998–2022 |
| D | McLaughlin | 28 | +0.88 | 3.6 pts toward Republicans | 7.1 | 71% | 2000–2024 |
| D | Clout Research | 14 | +0.87 | 5.9 pts toward Republicans | 6.5 | 50% | 2010–2016 |
| D | GQR | 40 | +1.15 | 3.5 pts toward Democrats | 4.3 | 66% | 2000–2024 |
| D | St. Cloud State University | 17 | +1.84 | 4.7 pts toward Democrats | 7.0 | 76% | 1998–2022 |
| F | Global Strategy Group | 26 | +1.06 | 2.7 pts toward Democrats | 5.6 | 69% | 2004–2022 |
| F | Impact Research | 18 | +1.09 | 4.3 pts toward Democrats | 5.5 | 59% | 2004–2024 |
| F | Digital Research | 21 | +1.42 | 0.8 pts toward Democrats | 8.7 | 90% | 2006–2012 |
| F | The Political Matrix/The Listener Group | 11 | +1.32 | 4.5 pts toward Democrats | 7.8 | 73% | 2018–2022 |
| F | Rutgers-Eagleton | 19 | +2.56 | 2.5 pts toward Democrats | 7.6 | 89% | 2000–2024 |
| F | FM3 Research | 10 | +1.87 | 8.3 pts toward Democrats | 8.8 | 67% | 1998–2022 |
| F | Opinion Research Associates | 14 | +2.35 | 7.6 pts toward Democrats | 9.2 | 64% | 2000–2014 |
| F | Nielson Brothers Polling | 11 | +2.16 | 12.3 pts toward Democrats | 12.3 | 91% | 2010–2020 |
Positive lean means the pollster overstated the Democrat; negative, the Republican. Data: ABC News / 538: pollster-ratings raw_polls.csv (CC BY 4.0); ABC News / 538: poll-page CSVs, archived 2025-03-06 (license unconfirmed; research use); ABC News / 538: election-results (no license stated). Generated 2026-10-24T17:50:06+00:00.