Noble Predictive Insights
Polls scored
19
18 races, 2018–2024
Lean
1.1 pts toward Democrats
95% range -1.2 to 3.1
Average miss
3.9 pts
on the D–R margin
Winner called
63%
Every scored poll
| Fieldwork ended | Race | Poll | Result | Miss | Workings |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-10-31 | 2024 President · Nevada | D+1.0 | R+3.1 | +4.1 | autopsy |
| 2024-10-31 | 2024 Senate · Nevada | D+2.0 | D+1.6 | +0.4 | autopsy |
| 2024-10-30 | 2024 President · Arizona | R+1.0 | R+5.5 | +4.5 | autopsy |
| 2024-10-30 | 2024 Senate · Arizona | D+4.0 | D+2.4 | +1.6 | autopsy |
| 2024-10-28 | 2024 President · Utah | R+20.0 | R+21.6 | +1.6 | autopsy |
| 2024-10-28 | 2024 Senate · Utah | R+28.0 | R+30.8 | +2.8 | autopsy |
| 2024-10-28 | 2024 Governor · Utah | R+17.0 | R+24.4 | +7.4 | autopsy |
| 2024-10-27 | 2024 President · US | D+3.0 | R+1.5 | +4.5 | autopsy |
| 2024-10-25 | 2024 House · Pennsylvania | D+7.0 | R+1.6 | +8.6 | autopsy |
| 2022-10-26 | 2022 Senate · NV | D+2.0 | D+0.8 | +1.2 | autopsy |
| 2022-10-26 | 2022 Governor · NV | D+4.0 | R+1.5 | +5.5 | autopsy |
| 2022-10-25 | 2022 Senate · AZ | D+2.0 | D+4.9 | -2.9 | autopsy |
| 2022-10-25 | 2022 Governor · AZ | R+2.0 | D+0.7 | -2.7 | autopsy |
| 2020-10-24 | 2020 President · AZ | D+3.0 | D+0.3 | +2.7 | autopsy |
| 2020-10-24 | 2020 Senate · AZ | D+5.0 | D+2.3 | +2.7 | autopsy |
| 2018-11-02 | 2018 Senate · AZ | R+1.0 | D+2.3 | -3.3 | autopsy |
| 2018-10-22 | 2018 Senate · AZ | R+7.0 | D+2.3 | -9.3 | autopsy |
| 2018-10-22 | 2018 Governor · AZ | R+18.0 | R+14.2 | -3.8 | autopsy |
| 2018-04-11 | 2018 House · AZ-8 | R+10.0 | R+4.7 | -5.3 | autopsy |