2018 Governor · AZ
Noble Predictive Insights · fieldwork ended 2018-10-22 (15 days before the election) · 600 respondents · Live Phone
The poll said
Democrat 39% · Republican 57%
R+18.0
The certified result
Democrat 41.84% · Republican 56.00%
R+14.2
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 39 − 57 = -18.00
- Actual margin = 41.842 − 56.002 = -14.160
- Signed miss = -18.00 − (-14.160) = -3.839
- Absolute miss = |-3.839| = 3.839
The poll overstated the Republican by 3.8 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 56625, race ID 133 (538 database).