2024 Senate · Utah
Noble Predictive Insights · fieldwork ended 2024-10-28 (8 days before the election) · 695 respondents · Live Phone/Text-to-Web
The poll said
Democrat 26% · Republican 54%
R+28.0
The certified result
Democrat 31.74% · Republican 62.50%
R+30.8
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 26 − 54 = -28.00
- Actual margin = 31.740 − 62.500 = -30.760
- Signed miss = -28.00 − (-30.760) = 2.761
- Absolute miss = |2.761| = 2.761
The poll overstated the Democrat by 2.8 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 senate_polls_historical.csv (archived 2025-03-06). Poll ID 89111, race ID 9531 (538 database).
population: lv