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2018 House · AZ-8

Noble Predictive Insights · fieldwork ended 2018-04-11 (13 days before the election) · 500 respondents · IVR

The poll said

Democrat 43% · Republican 53%

R+10.0

The certified result

Democrat 47.63% · Republican 52.37%

R+4.7

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 43 − 53 = -10.00
  2. Actual margin = 47.633 − 52.367 = -4.734
  3. Signed miss = -10.00 − (-4.734) = -5.265
  4. Absolute miss = |-5.265| = 5.265

The poll overstated the Republican by 5.3 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 52337, race ID 1758 (538 database).