2024 Governor · Utah
Noble Predictive Insights · fieldwork ended 2024-10-28 (8 days before the election) · 695 respondents · Live Phone/Text-to-Web
The poll said
Democrat 26% · Republican 43%
R+17.0
The certified result
Democrat 28.46% · Republican 52.89%
R+24.4
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 26 − 43 = -17.00
- Actual margin = 28.462 − 52.890 = -24.428
- Signed miss = -17.00 − (-24.428) = 7.428
- Absolute miss = |7.428| = 7.428
The poll overstated the Democrat by 7.4 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 governor_polls_historical.csv (archived 2025-03-06). Poll ID 89111, race ID 9544 (538 database).
population: lv