2024 House · Pennsylvania
Noble Predictive Insights · fieldwork ended 2024-10-25 (11 days before the election) · 406 respondents · Live Phone/Text-to-Web
The poll said
Democrat 50% · Republican 43%
D+7.0
The certified result
Democrat 49.19% · Republican 50.81%
R+1.6
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 50 − 43 = 7.00
- Actual margin = 49.188 − 50.812 = -1.624
- Signed miss = 7.00 − (-1.624) = 8.624
- Absolute miss = |8.624| = 8.624
The poll overstated the Democrat by 8.6 points and had the wrong leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 house_polls_historical.csv (archived 2025-03-06). Poll ID 89069, race ID 9872 (538 database).
population: lv