NMB Research
Polls scored
79
67 races, 1998–2024
Lean
2.4 pts toward Republicans
95% range -3.9 to -1.1
Average miss
5.3 pts
on the D–R margin
Winner called
69%
Every scored poll
| Fieldwork ended | Race | Poll | Result | Miss | Workings |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-10-15 | 2024 House · Michigan | R+1.0 | D+6.6 | -7.6 | autopsy |
| 2020-10-17 | 2020 House · NY-24 | R+8.0 | R+2.4 | -5.6 | autopsy |
| 2020-10-13 | 2020 House · CA-39 | R+1.0 | R+1.2 | +0.2 | autopsy |
| 2018-10-16 | 2018 House · CA-45 | R+4.0 | D+4.1 | -8.1 | autopsy |
| 2016-11-02 | 2016 Governor · IN | even | R+6.0 | +6.0 | autopsy |
| 2016-11-02 | 2016 Senate · IN | R+5.0 | R+9.7 | +4.7 | autopsy |
| 2016-11-02 | 2016 President · IN | R+11.0 | R+19.2 | +8.2 | autopsy |
| 2016-11-02 | 2016 House · IN-9 | R+2.0 | R+13.7 | +11.7 | autopsy |
| 2014-10-26 | 2014 Senate · NC | even | R+1.6 | +1.6 | autopsy |
| 2014-10-26 | 2014 Senate · KY | R+7.0 | R+15.5 | +8.5 | autopsy |
| 2014-10-24 | 2014 House · NY-18 | even | D+5.2 | -5.2 | autopsy |
| 2014-10-19 | 2014 Senate · SD | R+24.0 | R+20.9 | -3.1 | autopsy |
| 2014-10-14 | 2014 House · NY-19 | R+26.0 | R+19.8 | -6.2 | autopsy |
| 2012-10-30 | 2012 President · MN | R+1.0 | D+7.7 | -8.7 | autopsy |
| 2012-10-30 | 2012 President · NM | D+8.0 | D+10.1 | -2.1 | autopsy |
| 2012-10-30 | 2012 Senate · NM | even | D+5.7 | -5.7 | autopsy |
| 2012-10-24 | 2012 President · NE | R+18.0 | R+21.8 | +3.8 | autopsy |
| 2012-10-24 | 2012 Senate · NE | R+16.0 | R+15.5 | -0.5 | autopsy |
| 2012-10-24 | 2012 House · NY-19 | R+10.0 | R+0.8 | -9.2 | autopsy |
| 2012-10-24 | 2012 House · NY-21 | D+2.0 | D+5.0 | -3.0 | autopsy |
| 2012-10-22 | 2012 House · TN-4 | R+13.0 | R+11.5 | -1.5 | autopsy |
| 2012-10-21 | 2012 President · NM | D+5.0 | D+10.1 | -5.1 | autopsy |
| 2012-10-21 | 2012 Senate · NM | R+1.0 | D+5.7 | -6.7 | autopsy |
| 2012-10-20 | 2012 House · MI-3 | R+14.0 | R+8.4 | -5.6 | autopsy |
| 2012-10-16 | 2012 Senate · OH | R+1.0 | D+6.0 | -7.0 | autopsy |
| 2010-10-30 | 2010 House · VA-5 | R+3.0 | R+3.8 | +0.8 | autopsy |
| 2010-10-24 | 2010 Governor · MN | even | D+0.4 | -0.4 | autopsy |
| 2010-10-24 | 2010 House · NM-1 | R+2.0 | D+3.6 | -5.6 | autopsy |
| 2010-10-24 | 2010 House · ND-1 | R+9.0 | R+9.8 | +0.8 | autopsy |
| 2010-10-22 | 2010 Governor · NM | R+8.0 | R+6.7 | -1.3 | autopsy |
| 2010-10-20 | 2010 House · RI-1 | even | D+6.0 | -6.0 | autopsy |
| 2010-10-19 | 2010 House · MI-3 | R+19.0 | R+22.2 | +3.2 | autopsy |
| 2010-10-19 | 2010 House · PA-8 | R+10.0 | R+7.0 | -3.0 | autopsy |
| 2010-10-17 | 2010 House · NY-20 | R+2.0 | R+1.5 | -0.5 | autopsy |
| 2010-10-17 | 2010 House · VA-2 | R+5.0 | R+10.7 | +5.7 | autopsy |
| 2010-10-13 | 2010 House · CA-47 | even | D+13.7 | -13.7 | autopsy |
| 2010-10-13 | 2010 House · TN-4 | R+5.0 | R+18.5 | +13.5 | autopsy |
| 2010-10-12 | 2010 Governor · MA | R+7.0 | D+6.4 | -13.4 | autopsy |
| 2010-05-04 | 2010 House · PA-12 | R+2.0 | D+7.7 | -9.7 | autopsy |
| 2008-11-17 | 2008 House · LA-4 | R+1.0 | R+0.4 | -0.6 | autopsy |
| 2008-10-30 | 2008 Senate · GA | R+9.0 | R+2.9 | -6.1 | autopsy |
| 2008-10-25 | 2008 Senate · OK | R+16.0 | R+17.5 | +1.5 | autopsy |
| 2008-10-22 | 2008 President · CO | D+12.0 | D+9.0 | +3.0 | autopsy |
| 2008-10-22 | 2008 President · CO | D+12.0 | D+9.0 | +3.0 | autopsy |
| 2008-10-22 | 2008 Senate · CO | D+13.0 | D+10.3 | +2.7 | autopsy |
| 2008-10-22 | 2008 House · PA-3 | R+2.0 | D+2.5 | -4.5 | autopsy |
| 2008-10-21 | 2008 President · NH | D+4.0 | D+9.6 | -5.6 | autopsy |
| 2008-10-21 | 2008 Senate · NH | D+3.0 | D+6.3 | -3.3 | autopsy |
| 2008-10-18 | 2008 President · NH | D+9.0 | D+9.6 | -0.6 | autopsy |
| 2008-10-18 | 2008 Senate · NH | D+6.0 | D+6.3 | -0.3 | autopsy |
| 2006-11-01 | 2006 House · FL-13 | R+3.0 | R+0.2 | -2.8 | autopsy |
| 2006-11-01 | 2006 House · NM-1 | R+2.0 | R+0.4 | -1.6 | autopsy |
| 2006-10-31 | 2006 Senate · NJ | D+2.0 | D+16.0 | -14.0 | autopsy |
| 2006-10-30 | 2006 Governor · CO | D+22.0 | D+16.8 | +5.2 | autopsy |
| 2006-10-25 | 2006 Governor · MD | R+1.0 | D+6.5 | -7.5 | autopsy |
| 2006-10-23 | 2006 House · NM-1 | D+3.0 | R+0.4 | +3.4 | autopsy |
| 2006-10-23 | 2006 House · PA-4 | R+12.0 | D+3.9 | -15.9 | autopsy |
| 2006-10-22 | 2006 House · CT-2 | R+7.0 | even | -7.0 | autopsy |
| 2006-10-20 | 2006 Governor · FL | R+14.0 | R+7.1 | -6.9 | autopsy |
| 2006-10-18 | 2006 House · NE-1 | R+22.0 | R+16.7 | -5.3 | autopsy |
| 2004-10-26 | 2004 President · CO | R+9.0 | R+4.7 | -4.3 | autopsy |
| 2004-10-26 | 2004 Senate · CO | D+6.0 | D+4.8 | +1.2 | autopsy |
| 2004-10-15 | 2004 President · CO | R+5.0 | R+4.7 | -0.3 | autopsy |
| 2004-10-15 | 2004 President · CO | R+5.0 | R+4.7 | -0.3 | autopsy |
| 2004-10-15 | 2004 Senate · CO | R+5.0 | D+4.8 | -9.8 | autopsy |
| 2004-10-13 | 2004 Senate · KY | R+11.0 | R+1.3 | -9.7 | autopsy |
| 2002-11-03 | 2002 Senate · MN | D+0.2 | R+2.2 | +2.4 | autopsy |
| 2002-11-03 | 2002 Senate · NH | D+1.8 | R+4.4 | +6.2 | autopsy |
| 2002-11-03 | 2002 Senate · SD | R+0.1 | D+0.2 | -0.3 | autopsy |
| 2002-10-28 | 2002 Senate · SD | R+3.0 | D+0.2 | -3.2 | autopsy |
| 2002-10-27 | 2002 House · PA-13 | D+8.0 | D+3.6 | +4.4 | autopsy |
| 2002-10-26 | 2002 Senate · MN | D+2.0 | R+2.2 | +4.2 | autopsy |
| 2002-10-25 | 2002 Senate · SD | R+3.0 | D+0.2 | -3.2 | autopsy |
| 2002-10-22 | 2002 House · AZ-1 | R+12.0 | R+3.6 | -8.4 | autopsy |
| 2002-10-16 | 2002 House · NJ-5 | R+15.0 | R+21.2 | +6.2 | autopsy |
| 2000-10-22 | 2000 President · PA | R+2.0 | D+4.2 | -6.2 | autopsy |
| 2000-10-22 | 2000 Senate · PA | R+22.0 | R+6.9 | -15.1 | autopsy |
| 1998-10-21 | 1998 House · IN-9 | R+10.0 | D+2.8 | -12.8 | autopsy |
| 1998-10-16 | 1998 Governor · CO | R+4.0 | R+0.6 | -3.4 | autopsy |