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2010 Governor · MN

Public Opinion Strategies · fieldwork ended 2010-10-24 (9 days before the election) · 500 respondents · Live Phone · partisan sponsor (REP)

The poll said

Democrat 40% · Republican 40%

even

The certified result

Democrat 43.63% · Republican 43.21%

D+0.4

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 40 − 40 = 0.00
  2. Actual margin = 43.627 − 43.211 = 0.416
  3. Signed miss = 0.00 − (0.416) = -0.416
  4. Absolute miss = |-0.416| = 0.416

The poll overstated the Republican by 0.4 points and showed a tie.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 73531, race ID 1296 (538 database).