2016 Governor · IN
Public Opinion Strategies · fieldwork ended 2016-11-02 (6 days before the election) · 600 respondents · Live Phone
The poll said
Democrat 42% · Republican 42%
even
The certified result
Democrat 45.42% · Republican 51.38%
R+6.0
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 42 − 42 = 0.00
- Actual margin = 45.423 − 51.375 = -5.952
- Signed miss = 0.00 − (-5.952) = 5.952
- Absolute miss = |5.952| = 5.952
The poll overstated the Democrat by 6.0 points and showed a tie.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 48333, race ID 49 (538 database).