2012 President · NM
Public Opinion Strategies · fieldwork ended 2012-10-21 (16 days before the election) · 500 respondents · Live Phone · partisan sponsor (REP)
The poll said
Democrat 47% · Republican 42%
D+5.0
The certified result
Democrat 52.99% · Republican 42.84%
D+10.1
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 47 − 42 = 5.00
- Actual margin = 52.993 − 42.843 = 10.150
- Signed miss = 5.00 − (10.150) = -5.149
- Absolute miss = |-5.149| = 5.149
The poll overstated the Republican by 5.1 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 30477, race ID 685 (538 database).