2012 House · MI-3
Public Opinion Strategies · fieldwork ended 2012-10-20 (17 days before the election) · 400 respondents · Live Phone · partisan sponsor (REP)
The poll said
Democrat 36% · Republican 50%
R+14.0
The certified result
Democrat 44.17% · Republican 52.62%
R+8.4
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 36 − 50 = -14.00
- Actual margin = 44.167 − 52.615 = -8.448
- Signed miss = -14.00 − (-8.448) = -5.551
- Absolute miss = |-5.551| = 5.551
The poll overstated the Republican by 5.6 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 51366, race ID 5097 (538 database).