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2006 House · NE-1

Public Opinion Strategies · fieldwork ended 2006-10-18 (20 days before the election) · 350 respondents · Live Phone · partisan sponsor (REP)

The poll said

Democrat 36% · Republican 58%

R+22.0

The certified result

Democrat 41.64% · Republican 58.36%

R+16.7

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 36 − 58 = -22.00
  2. Actual margin = 41.644 − 58.356 = -16.712
  3. Signed miss = -22.00 − (-16.712) = -5.289
  4. Absolute miss = |-5.289| = 5.289

The poll overstated the Republican by 5.3 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 64174, race ID 3826 (538 database).