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2010 House · RI-1

Public Opinion Strategies · fieldwork ended 2010-10-20 (13 days before the election) · 300 respondents · Live Phone · partisan sponsor (REP)

The poll said

Democrat 41% · Republican 41%

even

The certified result

Democrat 50.54% · Republican 44.49%

D+6.0

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 41 − 41 = 0.00
  2. Actual margin = 50.536 − 44.487 = 6.049
  3. Signed miss = 0.00 − (6.049) = -6.049
  4. Absolute miss = |-6.049| = 6.049

The poll overstated the Republican by 6.0 points and showed a tie.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 52072, race ID 4810 (538 database).