2010 House · VA-5
Public Opinion Strategies · fieldwork ended 2010-10-30 (3 days before the election) · 400 respondents · Live Phone · partisan sponsor (REP)
The poll said
Democrat 42% · Republican 45%
R+3.0
The certified result
Democrat 46.99% · Republican 50.81%
R+3.8
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 42 − 45 = -3.00
- Actual margin = 46.988 − 50.812 = -3.824
- Signed miss = -3.00 − (-3.824) = 0.824
- Absolute miss = |0.824| = 0.824
The poll overstated the Democrat by 0.8 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 52126, race ID 4868 (538 database).