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2008 Senate · NH

Public Opinion Strategies · fieldwork ended 2008-10-21 (14 days before the election) · 525 respondents · Live Phone · partisan sponsor (REP)

The poll said

Democrat 46% · Republican 43%

D+3.0

The certified result

Democrat 51.59% · Republican 45.25%

D+6.3

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 46 − 43 = 3.00
  2. Actual margin = 51.590 − 45.252 = 6.338
  3. Signed miss = 3.00 − (6.338) = -3.338
  4. Absolute miss = |-3.338| = 3.338

The poll overstated the Republican by 3.3 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 16723, race ID 1566 (538 database).