Skip to content

2016 House · IN-9

Public Opinion Strategies · fieldwork ended 2016-11-02 (6 days before the election) · 310 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 42% · Republican 44%

R+2.0

The certified result

Democrat 40.46% · Republican 54.14%

R+13.7

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 42 − 44 = -2.00
  2. Actual margin = 40.461 − 54.141 = -13.680
  3. Signed miss = -2.00 − (-13.680) = 11.680
  4. Absolute miss = |11.680| = 11.680

The poll overstated the Democrat by 11.7 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 48333, race ID 5927 (538 database).