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2006 House · NM-1

Public Opinion Strategies · fieldwork ended 2006-11-01 (6 days before the election) · 450 respondents · Live Phone · partisan sponsor (REP)

The poll said

Democrat 46% · Republican 48%

R+2.0

The certified result

Democrat 49.80% · Republican 50.20%

R+0.4

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 46 − 48 = -2.00
  2. Actual margin = 49.796 − 50.204 = -0.408
  3. Signed miss = -2.00 − (-0.408) = -1.592
  4. Absolute miss = |-1.592| = 1.592

The poll overstated the Republican by 1.6 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 64179, race ID 3847 (538 database).