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2006 Senate · NJ

Public Opinion Strategies · fieldwork ended 2006-10-31 (7 days before the election) · 600 respondents · Live Phone · partisan sponsor (REP)

The poll said

Democrat 43% · Republican 41%

D+2.0

The certified result

Democrat 57.20% · Republican 41.19%

D+16.0

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 43 − 41 = 2.00
  2. Actual margin = 57.204 − 41.185 = 16.019
  3. Signed miss = 2.00 − (16.019) = -14.019
  4. Absolute miss = |-14.019| = 14.019

The poll overstated the Republican by 14.0 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 24412, race ID 1598 (538 database).