2016 Senate · IN
Public Opinion Strategies · fieldwork ended 2016-11-02 (6 days before the election) · 600 respondents · Live Phone
The poll said
Democrat 41% · Republican 46%
R+5.0
The certified result
Democrat 42.41% · Republican 52.11%
R+9.7
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 41 − 46 = -5.00
- Actual margin = 42.413 − 52.112 = -9.699
- Signed miss = -5.00 − (-9.699) = 4.700
- Absolute miss = |4.700| = 4.700
The poll overstated the Democrat by 4.7 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 48333, race ID 78 (538 database).