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2002 House · AZ-1

Public Opinion Strategies · fieldwork ended 2002-10-22 (14 days before the election) · 361 respondents · Live Phone · partisan sponsor (REP)

The poll said

Democrat 34% · Republican 46%

R+12.0

The certified result

Democrat 45.64% · Republican 49.21%

R+3.6

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 34 − 46 = -12.00
  2. Actual margin = 45.642 − 49.212 = -3.570
  3. Signed miss = -12.00 − (-3.570) = -8.430
  4. Absolute miss = |-8.430| = 8.430

The poll overstated the Republican by 8.4 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 64171, race ID 2725 (538 database).