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2020 House · CA-39

Public Opinion Strategies · fieldwork ended 2020-10-13 (21 days before the election) · 400 respondents · Live Phone · partisan sponsor (REP)

The poll said

Democrat 46% · Republican 47%

R+1.0

The certified result

Democrat 49.40% · Republican 50.60%

R+1.2

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 46 − 47 = -1.00
  2. Actual margin = 49.402 − 50.598 = -1.196
  3. Signed miss = -1.00 − (-1.196) = 0.195
  4. Absolute miss = |0.195| = 0.195

The poll overstated the Democrat by 0.2 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 71371, race ID 7888 (538 database).