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2014 House · NY-19

Public Opinion Strategies · fieldwork ended 2014-10-14 (21 days before the election) · 400 respondents · Live Phone · partisan sponsor (REP)

The poll said

Democrat 30% · Republican 56%

R+26.0

The certified result

Democrat 28.78% · Republican 48.55%

R+19.8

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 30 − 56 = -26.00
  2. Actual margin = 28.777 − 48.546 = -19.769
  3. Signed miss = -26.00 − (-19.769) = -6.231
  4. Absolute miss = |-6.231| = 6.231

The poll overstated the Republican by 6.2 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 35931, race ID 5609 (538 database).