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2008 President · CO

Public Opinion Strategies · fieldwork ended 2008-10-22 (13 days before the election) · 500 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 52% · Republican 40%

D+12.0

The certified result

Democrat 53.66% · Republican 44.71%

D+9.0

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 52 − 40 = 12.00
  2. Actual margin = 53.660 − 44.708 = 8.952
  3. Signed miss = 12.00 − (8.952) = 3.047
  4. Absolute miss = |3.047| = 3.047

The poll overstated the Democrat by 3.0 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 63708, race ID 709 (538 database).