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2008 President · NH

Public Opinion Strategies · fieldwork ended 2008-10-21 (14 days before the election) · 525 respondents · Live Phone · partisan sponsor (REP)

The poll said

Democrat 48% · Republican 44%

D+4.0

The certified result

Democrat 54.13% · Republican 44.52%

D+9.6

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 48 − 44 = 4.00
  2. Actual margin = 54.127 − 44.521 = 9.606
  3. Signed miss = 4.00 − (9.606) = -5.605
  4. Absolute miss = |-5.605| = 5.605

The poll overstated the Republican by 5.6 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 16723, race ID 734 (538 database).