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2012 House · NY-19

Public Opinion Strategies · fieldwork ended 2012-10-24 (13 days before the election) · 400 respondents · Live Phone · partisan sponsor (REP)

The poll said

Democrat 39% · Republican 49%

R+10.0

The certified result

Democrat 39.33% · Republican 40.10%

R+0.8

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 39 − 49 = -10.00
  2. Actual margin = 39.330 − 40.098 = -0.768
  3. Signed miss = -10.00 − (-0.768) = -9.231
  4. Absolute miss = |-9.231| = 9.231

The poll overstated the Republican by 9.2 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 51342, race ID 5172 (538 database).