2010 House · VA-2
Public Opinion Strategies · fieldwork ended 2010-10-17 (16 days before the election) · 400 respondents · Live Phone · partisan sponsor (REP)
The poll said
Democrat 41% · Republican 46%
R+5.0
The certified result
Democrat 42.45% · Republican 53.12%
R+10.7
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 41 − 46 = -5.00
- Actual margin = 42.451 − 53.124 = -10.673
- Signed miss = -5.00 − (-10.673) = 5.674
- Absolute miss = |5.674| = 5.674
The poll overstated the Democrat by 5.7 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 52121, race ID 4865 (538 database).