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2010 House · NY-20

Public Opinion Strategies · fieldwork ended 2010-10-17 (16 days before the election) · 400 respondents · Live Phone · partisan sponsor (REP)

The poll said

Democrat 42% · Republican 44%

R+2.0

The certified result

Democrat 43.75% · Republican 45.27%

R+1.5

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 42 − 44 = -2.00
  2. Actual margin = 43.746 − 45.273 = -1.527
  3. Signed miss = -2.00 − (-1.527) = -0.473
  4. Absolute miss = |-0.473| = 0.473

The poll overstated the Republican by 0.5 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 51979, race ID 4739 (538 database).