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2004 President · CO

Public Opinion Strategies · fieldwork ended 2004-10-26 (7 days before the election) · 500 respondents · Live Phone

The poll said

Democrat 42% · Republican 51%

R+9.0

The certified result

Democrat 47.04% · Republican 51.71%

R+4.7

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 42 − 51 = -9.00
  2. Actual margin = 47.038 − 51.711 = -4.673
  3. Signed miss = -9.00 − (-4.673) = -4.327
  4. Absolute miss = |-4.327| = 4.327

The poll overstated the Republican by 4.3 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 4439, race ID 760 (538 database).