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2014 House · NY-18

Public Opinion Strategies · fieldwork ended 2014-10-24 (11 days before the election) · 400 respondents · Live Phone · partisan sponsor (REP)

The poll said

Democrat 42% · Republican 42%

even

The certified result

Democrat 40.83% · Republican 35.63%

D+5.2

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 42 − 42 = 0.00
  2. Actual margin = 40.830 − 35.628 = 5.202
  3. Signed miss = 0.00 − (5.202) = -5.202
  4. Absolute miss = |-5.202| = 5.202

The poll overstated the Republican by 5.2 points and showed a tie.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 35911, race ID 5608 (538 database).