Kaplan Strategies
Polls scored
127
96 races, 2012–2024
Lean
1.7 pts toward Democrats
95% range 0.6 to 2.7
Average miss
4.6 pts
on the D–R margin
Winner called
68%
Every scored poll
| Fieldwork ended | Race | Poll | Result | Miss | Workings |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024-10-31 | 2024 President · US | R+1.0 | R+1.5 | +0.5 | autopsy |
| 2020-12-29 | 2020 Senate · GA | D+2.0 | D+2.1 | -0.1 | autopsy |
| 2020-12-29 | 2020 Senate · GA | D+3.0 | D+1.2 | +1.8 | autopsy |
| 2020-10-28 | 2020 President · US | D+6.0 | D+4.4 | +1.6 | autopsy |
| 2020-10-27 | 2020 President · AK | R+9.0 | R+10.1 | +1.1 | autopsy |
| 2020-10-27 | 2020 President · AZ | D+4.0 | D+0.3 | +3.7 | autopsy |
| 2020-10-27 | 2020 President · NV | D+6.0 | D+2.4 | +3.6 | autopsy |
| 2020-10-27 | 2020 President · OH | R+2.0 | R+8.0 | +6.0 | autopsy |
| 2020-10-27 | 2020 President · TX | R+5.0 | R+5.6 | +0.6 | autopsy |
| 2020-10-27 | 2020 Senate · AK | R+3.0 | R+12.7 | +9.7 | autopsy |
| 2020-10-27 | 2020 Senate · AZ | D+5.0 | D+2.3 | +2.7 | autopsy |
| 2020-10-27 | 2020 Senate · TX | R+6.0 | R+9.6 | +3.6 | autopsy |
| 2020-10-27 | 2020 House · AK-1 | R+5.0 | R+9.1 | +4.1 | autopsy |
| 2020-10-26 | 2020 President · NC | D+3.0 | R+1.3 | +4.3 | autopsy |
| 2020-10-26 | 2020 Senate · NC | D+2.0 | R+1.7 | +3.7 | autopsy |
| 2020-10-26 | 2020 Governor · NC | D+8.0 | D+4.5 | +3.5 | autopsy |
| 2020-10-25 | 2020 President · MN | D+14.0 | D+7.1 | +6.9 | autopsy |
| 2020-10-25 | 2020 Senate · MN | D+14.0 | D+5.2 | +8.8 | autopsy |
| 2020-10-24 | 2020 President · MI | D+13.0 | D+2.8 | +10.2 | autopsy |
| 2020-10-24 | 2020 Senate · MI | D+11.0 | D+1.7 | +9.3 | autopsy |
| 2020-10-23 | 2020 President · PA | D+7.0 | D+1.2 | +5.8 | autopsy |
| 2020-10-23 | 2020 President · WI | D+11.0 | D+0.6 | +10.4 | autopsy |
| 2018-10-31 | 2018 Senate · CT | D+23.0 | D+17.4 | +5.6 | autopsy |
| 2018-10-31 | 2018 Senate · FL | D+3.0 | R+0.1 | +3.1 | autopsy |
| 2018-10-31 | 2018 Governor · CT | D+9.0 | D+3.7 | +5.3 | autopsy |
| 2018-10-31 | 2018 Governor · FL | D+1.0 | R+0.4 | +1.4 | autopsy |
| 2018-10-31 | 2018 Governor · VT | R+10.0 | R+14.9 | +4.9 | autopsy |
| 2018-10-31 | 2018 House · VT-1 | D+38.0 | D+43.3 | -5.3 | autopsy |
| 2018-10-29 | 2018 Senate · MI | D+13.0 | D+6.5 | +6.5 | autopsy |
| 2018-10-29 | 2018 Senate · OH | D+9.0 | D+6.8 | +2.2 | autopsy |
| 2018-10-29 | 2018 Governor · OH | D+5.0 | R+3.7 | +8.7 | autopsy |
| 2018-10-28 | 2018 Senate · AZ | R+1.0 | D+2.3 | -3.3 | autopsy |
| 2018-10-28 | 2018 Governor · AZ | R+13.0 | R+14.2 | +1.2 | autopsy |
| 2018-10-25 | 2018 Senate · MT | D+3.0 | D+3.6 | -0.6 | autopsy |
| 2018-10-25 | 2018 Senate · NV | D+2.0 | D+5.0 | -3.0 | autopsy |
| 2018-10-25 | 2018 Governor · CA | D+20.0 | D+23.9 | -3.9 | autopsy |
| 2018-10-25 | 2018 Governor · NV | D+2.0 | D+4.1 | -2.1 | autopsy |
| 2018-10-25 | 2018 House · MT-1 | even | R+4.6 | +4.6 | autopsy |
| 2018-10-22 | 2018 Senate · FL | D+4.0 | R+0.1 | +4.1 | autopsy |
| 2018-10-22 | 2018 Governor · FL | D+5.0 | R+0.4 | +5.4 | autopsy |
| 2018-03-03 | 2018 House · PA-18 | R+3.0 | D+0.3 | -3.3 | autopsy |
| 2017-12-07 | 2017 Senate · AL | R+4.0 | D+1.6 | -5.6 | autopsy |
| 2017-12-02 | 2017 Senate · AL | D+4.0 | D+1.6 | +2.4 | autopsy |
| 2017-11-01 | 2017 Governor · VA | D+5.5 | D+8.9 | -3.4 | autopsy |
| 2017-10-31 | 2017 Governor · NJ | D+14.0 | D+14.1 | -0.1 | autopsy |
| 2017-05-22 | 2017 House · MT-1 | R+14.0 | R+5.6 | -8.4 | autopsy |
| 2016-11-05 | 2016 Senate · NV | D+6.0 | D+2.4 | +3.6 | autopsy |
| 2016-11-05 | 2016 President · US | D+4.0 | D+2.2 | +1.8 | autopsy |
| 2016-11-05 | 2016 President · AK | R+3.0 | R+14.7 | +11.7 | autopsy |
| 2016-11-05 | 2016 President · AZ | R+2.0 | R+3.5 | +1.5 | autopsy |
| 2016-11-05 | 2016 President · CO | D+1.0 | D+4.9 | -3.9 | autopsy |
| 2016-11-05 | 2016 President · GA | R+4.0 | R+5.1 | +1.1 | autopsy |
| 2016-11-05 | 2016 President · NV | D+2.0 | D+2.4 | -0.4 | autopsy |
| 2016-11-05 | 2016 President · NY | D+19.0 | D+24.0 | -5.0 | autopsy |
| 2016-11-05 | 2016 President · OH | R+6.0 | R+8.1 | +2.1 | autopsy |
| 2016-11-05 | 2016 President · OR | D+4.0 | D+11.0 | -7.0 | autopsy |
| 2016-11-05 | 2016 President · PA | D+6.0 | R+0.7 | +6.7 | autopsy |
| 2016-11-05 | 2016 President · SC | R+5.0 | R+14.3 | +9.3 | autopsy |
| 2016-11-05 | 2016 President · WI | D+3.0 | R+0.8 | +3.8 | autopsy |
| 2016-11-03 | 2016 Senate · NC | D+1.0 | R+5.7 | +6.7 | autopsy |
| 2016-11-03 | 2016 President · MI | D+5.0 | R+0.2 | +5.2 | autopsy |
| 2016-11-03 | 2016 President · NC | D+1.0 | R+3.7 | +4.7 | autopsy |
| 2016-11-03 | 2016 President · VA | D+5.0 | D+5.3 | -0.3 | autopsy |
| 2016-11-01 | 2016 Senate · CO | D+3.0 | D+5.7 | -2.7 | autopsy |
| 2016-11-01 | 2016 Senate · NH | R+2.0 | D+0.1 | -2.1 | autopsy |
| 2016-11-01 | 2016 Senate · PA | D+2.0 | R+1.4 | +3.4 | autopsy |
| 2016-11-01 | 2016 Senate · FL | R+1.0 | R+7.7 | +6.7 | autopsy |
| 2016-11-01 | 2016 President · US | D+2.0 | D+2.2 | -0.2 | autopsy |
| 2016-11-01 | 2016 President · CO | even | D+4.9 | -4.9 | autopsy |
| 2016-11-01 | 2016 President · FL | D+1.0 | R+1.2 | +2.2 | autopsy |
| 2016-11-01 | 2016 President · NH | R+2.0 | D+0.4 | -2.4 | autopsy |
| 2016-11-01 | 2016 President · NM | D+8.0 | D+8.2 | -0.2 | autopsy |
| 2016-11-01 | 2016 President · PA | D+2.0 | R+0.7 | +2.7 | autopsy |
| 2016-10-31 | 2016 Governor · IN | D+4.0 | R+6.0 | +10.0 | autopsy |
| 2016-10-31 | 2016 Senate · IN | D+3.0 | R+9.7 | +12.7 | autopsy |
| 2016-10-31 | 2016 President · US | D+1.0 | D+2.2 | -1.2 | autopsy |
| 2016-10-31 | 2016 President · FL | D+3.0 | R+1.2 | +4.2 | autopsy |
| 2016-10-31 | 2016 President · IN | R+10.0 | R+19.2 | +9.2 | autopsy |
| 2016-10-31 | 2016 President · PA | D+1.0 | R+0.7 | +1.7 | autopsy |
| 2016-10-30 | 2016 President · UT | R+6.0 | R+18.1 | +12.1 | autopsy |
| 2016-10-27 | 2016 Senate · PA | D+4.0 | R+1.4 | +5.4 | autopsy |
| 2016-10-27 | 2016 President · PA | D+3.0 | R+0.7 | +3.7 | autopsy |
| 2016-10-25 | 2016 Senate · NC | D+3.0 | R+5.7 | +8.7 | autopsy |
| 2016-10-25 | 2016 Senate · NV | D+6.0 | D+2.4 | +3.6 | autopsy |
| 2016-10-25 | 2016 Senate · FL | even | R+7.7 | +7.7 | autopsy |
| 2016-10-25 | 2016 President · US | D+1.0 | D+2.2 | -1.2 | autopsy |
| 2016-10-25 | 2016 President · FL | D+1.0 | R+1.2 | +2.2 | autopsy |
| 2016-10-25 | 2016 President · NC | D+2.0 | R+3.7 | +5.7 | autopsy |
| 2016-10-25 | 2016 President · NV | even | D+2.4 | -2.4 | autopsy |
| 2016-10-23 | 2016 Governor · IN | D+4.0 | R+6.0 | +10.0 | autopsy |
| 2016-10-23 | 2016 Senate · IN | D+2.0 | R+9.7 | +11.7 | autopsy |
| 2016-10-23 | 2016 President · IN | R+11.0 | R+19.2 | +8.2 | autopsy |
| 2016-10-22 | 2016 President · US | even | D+2.2 | -2.2 | autopsy |
| 2015-05-28 | 2015 House · MS-1 | R+17.0 | R+39.9 | +22.9 | autopsy |
| 2014-10-30 | 2014 Senate · NC | R+1.0 | R+1.6 | +0.6 | autopsy |
| 2014-10-23 | 2014 Senate · MT | R+14.0 | R+17.7 | +3.7 | autopsy |
| 2014-10-23 | 2014 Governor · FL | D+2.0 | R+1.1 | +3.1 | autopsy |
| 2014-10-23 | 2014 House · MT-1 | R+12.0 | R+15.0 | +3.0 | autopsy |
| 2014-10-21 | 2014 Senate · IA | R+6.0 | R+8.3 | +2.3 | autopsy |
| 2014-10-20 | 2014 Governor · KS | D+5.0 | R+3.7 | +8.7 | autopsy |
| 2014-10-16 | 2014 Senate · NC | R+5.0 | R+1.6 | -3.4 | autopsy |
| 2014-10-16 | 2014 Senate · CO | R+5.0 | R+1.9 | -3.1 | autopsy |
| 2014-10-16 | 2014 Governor · CO | R+4.0 | D+3.3 | -7.3 | autopsy |
| 2012-11-04 | 2012 President · FL | even | D+0.9 | -0.9 | autopsy |
| 2012-11-04 | 2012 President · NC | R+4.0 | R+2.0 | -2.0 | autopsy |
| 2012-11-04 | 2012 President · OH | D+1.0 | D+3.0 | -2.0 | autopsy |
| 2012-11-04 | 2012 President · PA | D+3.0 | D+5.4 | -2.4 | autopsy |
| 2012-11-03 | 2012 President · US | even | D+3.9 | -3.9 | autopsy |
| 2012-11-01 | 2012 President · IA | D+4.0 | D+5.8 | -1.8 | autopsy |
| 2012-11-01 | 2012 President · NH | D+1.0 | D+5.6 | -4.6 | autopsy |
| 2012-11-01 | 2012 President · M2 | D+3.0 | D+8.6 | -5.6 | autopsy |
| 2012-10-30 | 2012 President · FL | R+3.0 | D+0.9 | -3.9 | autopsy |
| 2012-10-30 | 2012 Senate · FL | D+3.0 | D+13.0 | -10.0 | autopsy |
| 2012-10-28 | 2012 President · NE | R+22.0 | R+21.8 | -0.2 | autopsy |
| 2012-10-28 | 2012 Senate · NE | R+12.0 | R+15.5 | +3.5 | autopsy |
| 2012-10-28 | 2012 House · NE-2 | R+14.0 | R+1.6 | -12.4 | autopsy |
| 2012-10-27 | 2012 President · OH | D+1.0 | D+3.0 | -2.0 | autopsy |
| 2012-10-27 | 2012 Senate · OH | D+1.0 | D+6.0 | -5.0 | autopsy |
| 2012-10-26 | 2012 President · VA | even | D+3.9 | -3.9 | autopsy |
| 2012-10-26 | 2012 Senate · VA | R+2.0 | D+5.9 | -7.9 | autopsy |
| 2012-10-24 | 2012 President · FL | R+1.0 | D+0.9 | -1.9 | autopsy |
| 2012-10-24 | 2012 President · IA | D+4.0 | D+5.8 | -1.8 | autopsy |
| 2012-10-24 | 2012 President · NC | R+8.0 | R+2.0 | -6.0 | autopsy |
| 2012-10-24 | 2012 President · NV | D+1.0 | D+6.7 | -5.7 | autopsy |
| 2012-10-21 | 2012 President · PA | D+3.0 | D+5.4 | -2.4 | autopsy |
| 2012-10-18 | 2012 President · US | R+2.0 | D+3.9 | -5.9 | autopsy |
| 2012-10-18 | 2012 President · OH | even | D+3.0 | -3.0 | autopsy |