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2016 President · national

Gravis Marketing · fieldwork ended 2016-10-25 (14 days before the election) · 1,824 respondents · IVR

The poll said

Democrat 46% · Republican 45%

D+1.0

The certified result

Democrat 48.00% · Republican 45.81%

D+2.2

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 46 − 45 = 1.00
  2. Actual margin = 47.997 − 45.815 = 2.182
  3. Signed miss = 1.00 − (2.182) = -1.181
  4. Absolute miss = |-1.181| = 1.181

The poll overstated the Republican by 1.2 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 47631, race ID 94 (538 database).