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2017 Governor · VA

Gravis Marketing · fieldwork ended 2017-11-01 (6 days before the election) · 1,143 respondents · IVR/Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 48.3% · Republican 42.8%

D+5.5

The certified result

Democrat 53.89% · Republican 44.98%

D+8.9

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 48.3 − 42.8 = 5.50
  2. Actual margin = 53.894 − 44.977 = 8.917
  3. Signed miss = 5.50 − (8.917) = -3.417
  4. Absolute miss = |-3.417| = 3.417

The poll overstated the Republican by 3.4 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 50527, race ID 1214 (538 database).