2018 Senate · FL
Gravis Marketing · fieldwork ended 2018-10-31 (6 days before the election) · 753 respondents · IVR/Online Panel
The poll said
Democrat 50% · Republican 47%
D+3.0
The certified result
Democrat 49.93% · Republican 50.05%
R+0.1
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 50 − 47 = 3.00
- Actual margin = 49.932 − 50.055 = -0.123
- Signed miss = 3.00 − (-0.123) = 3.123
- Absolute miss = |3.123| = 3.123
The poll overstated the Democrat by 3.1 points and had the wrong leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 56756, race ID 100 (538 database).