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2018 Governor · CA

Gravis Marketing · fieldwork ended 2018-10-25 (12 days before the election) · 743 respondents · Live Phone/Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 55% · Republican 35%

D+20.0

The certified result

Democrat 61.95% · Republican 38.05%

D+23.9

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 55 − 35 = 20.00
  2. Actual margin = 61.949 − 38.051 = 23.898
  3. Signed miss = 20.00 − (23.898) = -3.897
  4. Absolute miss = |-3.897| = 3.897

The poll overstated the Republican by 3.9 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 56549, race ID 135 (538 database).