2020 President · MN
Gravis Marketing · fieldwork ended 2020-10-25 (9 days before the election) · 657 respondents · IVR/Online Panel
The poll said
Democrat 53% · Republican 39%
D+14.0
The certified result
Democrat 52.40% · Republican 45.28%
D+7.1
The arithmetic
- Poll margin = 53 − 39 = 14.00
- Actual margin = 52.395 − 45.285 = 7.110
- Signed miss = 14.00 − (7.110) = 6.890
- Absolute miss = |6.890| = 6.890
The poll overstated the Democrat by 6.9 points and had the right leader.
Where these numbers come from
Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 72056, race ID 6234 (538 database).