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2016 President · NM

Gravis Marketing · fieldwork ended 2016-11-01 (7 days before the election) · 1,327 respondents · IVR/Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 45% · Republican 37%

D+8.0

The certified result

Democrat 48.26% · Republican 40.04%

D+8.2

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 45 − 37 = 8.00
  2. Actual margin = 48.256 − 40.043 = 8.213
  3. Signed miss = 8.00 − (8.213) = -0.213
  4. Absolute miss = |-0.213| = 0.213

The poll overstated the Republican by 0.2 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 48775, race ID 634 (538 database).