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2016 President · OR

Gravis Marketing · fieldwork ended 2016-11-05 (3 days before the election) · 1,963 respondents · IVR/Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 44% · Republican 40%

D+4.0

The certified result

Democrat 50.07% · Republican 39.09%

D+11.0

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 44 − 40 = 4.00
  2. Actual margin = 50.072 − 39.094 = 10.978
  3. Signed miss = 4.00 − (10.978) = -6.978
  4. Absolute miss = |-6.978| = 6.978

The poll overstated the Republican by 7.0 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 48855, race ID 639 (538 database).