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2012 Senate · NE

Gravis Marketing · fieldwork ended 2012-10-28 (9 days before the election) · 1,168 respondents · IVR

The poll said

Democrat 44% · Republican 56%

R+12.0

The certified result

Democrat 42.23% · Republican 57.77%

R+15.5

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 44 − 56 = -12.00
  2. Actual margin = 42.226 − 57.774 = -15.548
  3. Signed miss = -12.00 − (-15.548) = 3.549
  4. Absolute miss = |3.549| = 3.549

The poll overstated the Democrat by 3.5 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 30521, race ID 1488 (538 database).