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2012 President · VA

Gravis Marketing · fieldwork ended 2012-10-26 (11 days before the election) · 645 respondents · IVR

The poll said

Democrat 48% · Republican 48%

even

The certified result

Democrat 51.16% · Republican 47.28%

D+3.9

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 48 − 48 = 0.00
  2. Actual margin = 51.156 − 47.283 = 3.873
  3. Signed miss = 0.00 − (3.873) = -3.873
  4. Absolute miss = |-3.873| = 3.873

The poll overstated the Republican by 3.9 points and showed a tie.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 30369, race ID 698 (538 database).