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2012 President · NH

Gravis Marketing · fieldwork ended 2012-11-01 (5 days before the election) · 497 respondents · IVR

The poll said

Democrat 50% · Republican 49%

D+1.0

The certified result

Democrat 51.98% · Republican 46.40%

D+5.6

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 50 − 49 = 1.00
  2. Actual margin = 51.980 − 46.404 = 5.576
  3. Signed miss = 1.00 − (5.576) = -4.576
  4. Absolute miss = |-4.576| = 4.576

The poll overstated the Republican by 4.6 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 30610, race ID 683 (538 database).