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2012 Senate · FL

Gravis Marketing · fieldwork ended 2012-10-30 (7 days before the election) · 549 respondents · IVR

The poll said

Democrat 49% · Republican 46%

D+3.0

The certified result

Democrat 55.23% · Republican 42.23%

D+13.0

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 49 − 46 = 3.00
  2. Actual margin = 55.232 − 42.226 = 13.006
  3. Signed miss = 3.00 − (13.006) = -10.006
  4. Absolute miss = |-10.006| = 10.006

The poll overstated the Republican by 10.0 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 30499, race ID 1477 (538 database).