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2014 Senate · NC

Gravis Marketing · fieldwork ended 2014-10-30 (5 days before the election) · 1,006 respondents · IVR

The poll said

Democrat 46% · Republican 47%

R+1.0

The certified result

Democrat 47.26% · Republican 48.82%

R+1.6

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 46 − 47 = -1.00
  2. Actual margin = 47.256 − 48.821 = -1.565
  3. Signed miss = -1.00 − (-1.565) = 0.564
  4. Absolute miss = |0.564| = 0.564

The poll overstated the Democrat by 0.6 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 34514, race ID 14 (538 database).