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2020 Senate · GA

Gravis Marketing · fieldwork ended 2020-12-29 (7 days before the election) · 1,011 respondents · IVR/Online Panel

The poll said

Democrat 49% · Republican 47%

D+2.0

The certified result

Democrat 51.04% · Republican 48.96%

D+2.1

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 49 − 47 = 2.00
  2. Actual margin = 51.040 − 48.960 = 2.080
  3. Signed miss = 2.00 − (2.080) = -0.080
  4. Absolute miss = |-0.080| = 0.080

The poll overstated the Republican by 0.1 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 73956, race ID 7781 (538 database).