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2012 President · NE

Gravis Marketing · fieldwork ended 2012-10-28 (9 days before the election) · 1,168 respondents · IVR

The poll said

Democrat 39% · Republican 61%

R+22.0

The certified result

Democrat 38.03% · Republican 59.80%

R+21.8

The arithmetic

  1. Poll margin = 39 − 61 = -22.00
  2. Actual margin = 38.027 − 59.803 = -21.776
  3. Signed miss = -22.00 − (-21.776) = -0.224
  4. Absolute miss = |-0.224| = 0.224

The poll overstated the Republican by 0.2 points and had the right leader.

Where these numbers come from

Poll and result: 538 raw_polls.csv. Poll ID 30521, race ID 682 (538 database).